22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Everton vs Crystal Palace Premier League prediction & result

Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Everton, 22% draw, 30% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.08, 4.55 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Everton at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Everton99%Draw1%Crystal Palace0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
D. Kamada
⚽K. Dewsbury-Hallassist: H. Armstrong
42'
⚽T. Barryassist: I. Ndiaye
53'
55'
🔁E. Nketiahout: Y. Pino
55'
🔁D. Munozout: A. Khalaili
63'
🔁J. Matetaout: J. Larsen
63'
🔁D. McNeilout: E. Guessand
72'
🔁C. Riadout: T. Tomiyasu
🔁T. Barryout: Beto
79'
🔁H. Hackneyout: J. Garner
79'
🔁T. Georgeout: B. Johnson
84'
🔁K. Dewsbury-Hallout: C. Alcaraz
90+4'

Match stats — Everton vs Crystal Palace

42%Possession58%
16Shots11
5On target4
4Corners0
1.16xG2.04

Goals against chances

Everton2 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Crystal Palace0 from 2.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1
  • 1Jordan PickfordG
  • 34Merlin RöhlD
  • 6James TarkowskiD
  • 4Jarrad BranthwaiteD
  • 16Vitaliy MykolenkoD
  • 45Harrison ArmstrongM
  • 30Hayden HackneyM
  • 10Iliman NdiayeM
  • 8Kiernan Dewsbury-HallM
  • 19Tyrique GeorgeM
  • 11Thierno BarryF
Substitutes
  • 37James GarnerM
  • 9BetoF
  • 22Brennan JohnsonF
  • 24Carlos AlcarazM
  • 12Mark TraversG
  • 2Nathan PattersonD
  • 5Michael KeaneD
  • 15Jake O'BrienD
  • 20Tyler DiblingF
Coach: Leighton Baines
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
  • 1Dean HendersonG
  • 6Jaydee CanvotD
  • 26Chris RichardsD
  • 4Chadi RiadD
  • 2Daniel MuñozM
  • 20Adam WhartonM
  • 18Daichi KamadaM
  • 3Tyrick MitchellM
  • 11Dwight McNeilF
  • 9Eddie NketiahF
  • 14Jean-Philippe MatetaF
Substitutes
  • 25Anan KhalailiF
  • 10Yéremy PinoM
  • 22Jørgen Strand LarsenF
  • 29Evann GuessandF
  • 17Takehiro TomiyasuD
  • 44Walter BenítezG
  • 24Borna SosaD
  • 30Óscar MinguezaD
  • 19Will HughesM
Coach: Pierre Sage

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Everton413053+26
16Crystal Palace4103611-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Everton vs Crystal Palace

  • 22 August 2026Everton 2–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 10 May 2026Crystal Palace 2–2 EvertonPremier League
  • 5 October 2025Everton 2–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 15 February 2025Crystal Palace 1–2 EvertonPremier League
  • 28 September 2024Everton 2–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 19 February 2024Everton 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League

Leading scorers: Everton and Crystal Palace

Everton

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Crystal Palace

  • T. Mitchell2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.