22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Ipswich vs Sunderland Premier League prediction & result

Portman Road, Ipswich
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Ipswich, 25% draw, 33% Sunderland — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ipswich at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ipswich5%Draw91%Sunderland4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Emersonnassist: J. Enciso
24'
36'
D. Ballard
39'
⚽N. Angulo
55'
N. Angulo
59'
🔁N. Anguloout: C. Talbi
63'
L. O'Nien
🔁I. Fatawuout: K. McAteer
66'
🔁Emersonnout: C. Akpom
66'
67'
🔁L. O'Nienout: O. Alderete
67'
🔁B. Brobbeyout: W. Isidor
🔁J. Encisoout: J. Clarke
71'
80'
🔁T. Humeout: C. Rigg
80'
🔁E. Le Feeout: H. Diarra
🔁D. Maedaout: A. Ouattara
80'
🔁M. Nunezout: S. W. Egeli
80'
⚽J. Clarkeassist: S. Lukic
90'

Match stats — Ipswich vs Sunderland

38%Possession62%
10Shots11
3On target4
3Corners5
1.74xG0.76

Goals against chances

Ipswich2 from 1.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sunderland1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ipswich 4-2-3-1
  • 37Kjell ScherpenG
  • 26Dara O'SheaD
  • 6Issa DiopD
  • 24Jacob GreavesD
  • 3Leif DavisD
  • 32Marcelino NúñezM
  • 23Saša LukićM
  • 7Abdul Fatawu IssahakuM
  • 10Julio EncisoM
  • 38Daizen MaedaM
  • 19EmersonnF
Substitutes
  • 20Kasey McAteerM
  • 29Chuba AkpomF
  • 47Jack ClarkeF
  • 42Abdoul OuattaraD
  • 8Sindre Walle EgeliF
  • 28Christian WaltonG
  • 2Darnell FurlongD
  • 4Cédric KipréD
  • 30Cameron HumphreysM
Coach: Gary O'Neil
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
  • 22Robin RoefsG
  • 12Thomas MeunierD
  • 5Daniel BallardD
  • 13Luke O'NienD
  • 17Reinildo MandavaD
  • 27Noah SadikiM
  • 34Granit XhakaM
  • 32Trai HumeM
  • 28Enzo Le FéeM
  • 10Nilson AnguloM
  • 9Brian BrobbeyF
Substitutes
  • 7Chemsdine TalbiF
  • 15Omar AldereteD
  • 18Wilson IsidorF
  • 11Chris RiggM
  • 19Habib DiarraM
  • 31Melker EllborgG
  • 20Nordi MukieleD
  • 37Jocelin Ta BiF
  • 14Romaine MundleF
Coach: Regis Le Bris

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Ipswich4202710-36
14Sunderland411235-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ipswich vs Sunderland

  • 22 August 2026Ipswich 2–1 SunderlandPremier League
  • 13 January 2024Ipswich 2–1 SunderlandChampionship
  • 6 August 2023Sunderland 1–2 IpswichChampionship
  • 18 December 2021Ipswich 1–1 SunderlandLeague One
  • 20 November 2021Sunderland 2–0 IpswichLeague One
  • 26 January 2021Ipswich 0–1 SunderlandLeague One

Leading scorers: Ipswich and Sunderland

Ipswich

  • Emersonn2 goals1 assists
  • L. Davis2 goals1 assists

Sunderland

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.