17 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba Serie A prediction & result

MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Coritiba.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Atletico Mineiro, 24% draw, 18% Coritiba — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Mineiro at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Mineiro97%Draw3%Coritiba0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Thiago Borbasout: Reinier Jesus Carvalho
45'
60'
🔁Paulo Robertoout: Rodrigo Rodrigues
61'
🔁Joaquin Lavegaout: Breno Lopes
62'
🔁Fabricio Bustosout: Tinga
🔁Tomás Pérezout: Kevin Castaño
62'
🔁Alan Mindaout: Tomás Cuello
62'
🔁Kaua Pasciniout: Renan Lodi
62'
🔁Mamady Cisseout: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
74'
⚽Igor Gomesassist: Natanael Moreira Milouski
78'
79'
🔁Sebastián Gómezout: Nicolas Fonseca
79'
🔁Pedro Rochaout: Brian Ocampo
90+4'
Bruno Melo
90+4'
Thiago Santos

Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba

58%Possession42%
22Shots13
10On target3
10Corners5
1.39xG0.69

Goals against chances

Atletico Mineiro1 from 1.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Coritiba0 from 0.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Mineiro 4-2-3-1
  • 1Gabriel DelfimG
  • 2NatanaelD
  • 3Léo DuarteD
  • 14Vitor HugoD
  • 36K. PasciniD
  • 25T. PérezM
  • 5AlexsanderM
  • 27A. MindaM
  • 39Mamady CisseM
  • 17Igor GomesM
  • 18T. BorbasF
Substitutes
  • 19ReinierM
  • 92DuduF
  • 31RobertG
  • 23A. PreciadoD
  • 13LyancoD
  • 8MayconM
  • 11BernardM
  • 15K. CastañoM
  • 28T. CuelloF
Coach: E. Domínguez
Coritiba 4-2-3-1
  • 1Pedro LuccasG
  • 14F. BustosD
  • 23Tiago CóserD
  • 55JacyD
  • 26Bruno MeloD
  • 21Thiago SantosM
  • 19S. GómezM
  • 32Pedro RochaM
  • 10JosuéM
  • 7J. LavegaM
  • 18Paulo RobertoF
Substitutes
  • 36Vini PaulistaF
  • 5N. FonsecaM
  • 13KeillerG
  • 3MaiconD
  • 17B. OcampoF
  • 78Renato MarquesF
  • 4Rodrigo MoledoD
  • 99Rodrigo RodriguesF
  • 2TingaD
Coach: Fernando Seabra

Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Atletico Torque14 October 2026
  • W2-1Santos11 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Atletico Paranaense8 October 2026
  • D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
  • W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026

Coritiba

Serie A

  • D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Mineiro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Mineiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Mineiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Atletico Mineiro35149124440+451
13Coritiba34119144051-1142

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba

  • 19 April 2026Coritiba 2–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 8 October 2023Atletico Mineiro 1–2 CoritibaSerie A
  • 20 May 2023Coritiba 1–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 14 August 2022Coritiba 0–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 24 April 2022Atletico Mineiro 2–2 CoritibaSerie A
  • 26 December 2020Atletico Mineiro 2–0 CoritibaSerie A

The full Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Coritiba

Atletico Mineiro

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Coritiba

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro Rocha91
  • Breno Lopes81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Mineiro beat Coritiba 1–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Mineiro its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Igor Gomes 78' for Atletico Mineiro. On expected goals it finished 1.39–0.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Mineiro these chances to finish in the top four: 15.3% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 15.3%.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Atletico Mineiro's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Atletico Mineiro win58%▲ +9
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Coritiba win18%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.