17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Venezia vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Venezia 1-0 Napoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 12% Venezia, 20% draw, 68% Napoli — fair odds of 8.33, 5.00 and 1.47.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Napoli at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Venezia93%Draw7%Napoli0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Akor Adamsassist: Simon Sohm
49'
54'
🔁Lorenzo Luccaout: Rasmus Hojlund
54'
🔁Giovane Santana Do Nascimentoout: Alisson Santos
54'
🔁Billy Gilmourout: Kevin De Bruyne
Toma Bašić
61'
🔁John Yeboahout: Albion Rrahmani
63'
63'
🔁Sam Beukemaout: Matteo Politano
68'
⚽Kevin De Bruyne (pen)
🔁Toma Bašićout: Thorir Johann Helgason
71'
🔁Ridgeciano Hapsout: Pasquale Mazzocchi
71'
🔁Matias Morenoout: Joël Schingtienne
72'
Enrique Pérez Muñoz
80'
🔁Simon Sohmout: Lamine Fanne
82'
82'
🔁Leonardo Spinazzolaout: Mathias Olivera

Match stats — Venezia vs Napoli

29%Possession71%
9Shots29
4On target10
0Corners12
0.67xG2.46

Goals against chances

Venezia1 from 0.67 xGabout what the chances were worth
Napoli0 from 2.46 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Venezia 3-5-2
  • 1F. StankovićG
  • 25R. HalhalD
  • 2M. MorenoD
  • 15Juan JesusD
  • 18A. HainautM
  • 71Kike PérezM
  • 19S. SohmM
  • 26T. BašićM
  • 5R. HapsM
  • 10J. YeboahF
  • 45A. AdamsF
Substitutes
  • 8Lamine DaboM
  • 96L. MontipòG
  • 3J. SchingtienneD
  • 20R. SagradoD
  • 77Toni FernándezM
  • 30M. DagassoM
  • 56K. LismanF
  • 36Lorenzo BerardiM
  • 16R. MohammedD
Coach: D. Nicola
Napoli 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 31S. BeukemaD
  • 13Amir RrahmaniD
  • 5B. BadiashileD
  • 22G. Di LorenzoM
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 68S. LobotkaM
  • 37L. SpinazzolaM
  • 23GiovaneM
  • 8S. McTominayM
  • 20L. LuccaF
Substitutes
  • 35Luca MarianucciD
  • 16Rafa MarínD
  • 17M. OliveraD
  • 21M. PolitanoF
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
  • 27Alisson SantosF
  • 19R. HøjlundF
  • 70N. LangF
Coach: M. Allegri

Form going into Venezia vs Napoli

Venezia

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Atalanta12 October 2026
  • L0-2Lazio19 September 2026
  • L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026

Napoli

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Villarreal13 October 2026
  • W3-0Frosinone10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fiorentina20 September 2026
  • W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
  • L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026

What these results say

  • Venezia did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Venezia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Napoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Venezia11209821-136
10Napoli114341814+415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Venezia vs Napoli

  • 16 March 2025Venezia 0–0 NapoliSerie A
  • 29 December 2024Napoli 1–0 VeneziaSerie A
  • 6 February 2022Venezia 0–2 NapoliSerie A
  • 22 August 2021Napoli 2–0 VeneziaSerie A

The full Venezia vs Napoli record →

The result against the call

Venezia beat Napoli 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Napoli at 68% and given a win for Venezia 12%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one. The goal: Akor Adams 49' for Venezia. On expected goals it finished 0.67–2.46.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Venezia a 88.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 83.2% after a win, 87.2% after a draw, 89.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 83.2%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

For Napoli the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.3% going in: 44.2% after a win, 35.7% after a draw, 31.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.0%, 10.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Venezia v Napoli has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 18% / 25% / 57% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 12% / 20% / 68%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Venezia win12%▼ −6
  2. Draw20%▼ −5
  3. Napoli win68%▲ +11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.