Bologna vs Inter Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bologna 1-3 Inter.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Bologna, 24% draw, 57% Inter — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Inter at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bologna vs Inter
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ł. SkorupskiG
- 36M. DarmianD
- 16N. CasaleD
- 3A. TheateD
- 20N. ZorteaM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 4T. PobegaM
- 33Juan MirandaM
- 10F. BernardeschiM
- 28N. CambiaghiM
- 91R. PiccoliF
- 22J. EnemF
- 5E. HellandD
- 17O. El AzzouziM
- 72U. HapponenG
- 14T. HeggemD
- 9A. DovbykF
- 18M. LibraM
- 11S. MbangulaF
- 8M. AmondarainM
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 11Luis HenriqueM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 8P. SučićM
- 32F. DimarcoM
- 9M. ThuramF
- 94F. EspositoF
- 14A. BonnyF
- 46L. BovioD
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 30Carlos AugustoD
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 17A. DioufM
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 48M. MosconiF
- 49I. ProvedelG
Form going into Bologna vs Inter
Bologna
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Lecce11 October 2026
- D1-1Torino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
Inter
All competitions we cover
- L3-4Club Brugge KV13 October 2026
- W3-0Parma10 October 2026
- D2-2away to AS Roma19 September 2026
- W5-3Udinese14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026
What these results say
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bologna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Inter had three goals or more.
- Inter conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Inter
- 23 May 2026Bologna 3–3 InterSerie A
- 4 January 2026Inter 3–1 BolognaSerie A
- 19 December 2025Bologna 1–1 InterSuper Cup
- 20 April 2025Bologna 1–0 InterSerie A
- 15 January 2025Inter 2–2 BolognaSerie A
- 9 March 2024Bologna 0–1 InterSerie A
Leading scorers: Bologna and Inter
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Inter
GoalsAssists
- M. Thuram62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Inter won 3–1 at Bologna. The model had made a win for Inter its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Tommaso Pobega 10' for Bologna, Marcus Thuram 44' for Inter, Carlos Augusto 69' for Inter, Ange-Yoan Bonny 83' for Inter. On expected goals it finished 0.98–3.41.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bologna a 9.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.6% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.5%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
For Inter the question was the chance to win the league, 41.8% going in: 44.5% after a win, 38.7% after a draw, 35.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.5%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bologna v Inter has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 23% / 26% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 19% / 24% / 57%: the biggest move is Inter's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Bologna win19%▼ −4
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Inter win57%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.