7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Parma vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Referee: Luca Zufferli
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Parma 1-2 Bologna.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Parma, 32% draw, 41% Bologna — fair odds of 3.70, 3.13 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bologna at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Parma0%Draw2%Bologna98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye
7'
Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye
9'
José David Romero
14'
20'
Nicolo Casale
🔁José David Romeroout: El Bilal Toure
22'
26'
🔁Juan Mirandaout: Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda
Mariano Troilo
42'
🔁Benjamin Cremaschiout: Sascha Britschgi
45'
🔁Simone Lontaniout: Nesta Elphege
45'
45'
🔁Nadir Zorteaout: Riccardo Orsolini
53'
⚽Arthur Theateassist: Nicolo Cambiaghi
54'
•Federico Bernardeschi
59'
🔁Nicolo Casaleout: Eivind Helland
59'
🔁Jens Odgaardout: Roberto Piccoli
68'
•Nicolo Cambiaghi
Enrico DelPrato
72'
72'
⚽Riccardo Orsolini (pen)
75'
🔁Nicolo Cambiaghiout: Martin Vitik
•Giovanni Fabbian
77'
80'
Martin Vitik
⚽Vincent Sierro (pen)
81'
🔁Giovanni Fabbianout: Pontus Almqvist
82'
🔁Vincent Sierroout: Christian Ordóñez
82'

Match stats — Parma vs Bologna

31%Possession69%
11Shots33
2On target10
1Corners15
1.52xG3.64

Goals against chances

Parma1 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth
Bologna2 from 3.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Parma 3-5-2
  • 30G. DaffaraG
  • 15E. Del PratoD
  • 37M. TroiloD
  • 3A. N'DiayeD
  • 8B. CremaschiM
  • 80G. FabbianM
  • 4V. SierroM
  • 16M. KeitaM
  • 14E. ValeriM
  • 9D. RomeroF
  • 76S. LontaniF
Substitutes
  • 29F. CarboniD
  • 19E. TouréF
  • 40E. CorviG
  • 7Ousmane DialloF
  • 34Diego CarlosD
  • 23N. ElphegeF
  • 20M. FriganF
  • 22S. GhidottiG
  • 47Abdou KonateM
Coach: A. Gilardino
Bologna 3-4-3
  • 1Ł. SkorupskiG
  • 36M. DarmianD
  • 16N. CasaleD
  • 3A. TheateD
  • 20N. ZorteaM
  • 19L. FergusonM
  • 4T. PobegaM
  • 33Juan MirandaM
  • 10F. BernardeschiF
  • 21J. OdgaardF
  • 28N. CambiaghiF
Substitutes
  • 41M. VitíkD
  • 23R. AlhassaneD
  • 8M. AmondarainM
  • 9A. DovbykF
  • 17O. El AzzouziM
  • 91R. PiccoliF
  • 25M. PessinaG
  • 7R. OrsoliniF
  • 6N. MoroM
Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Form going into Parma vs Bologna

Parma

Serie A

  • W3-0away to Atalanta2 November 2026
  • D0-0Udinese28 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Lazio24 October 2026
  • L0-3Torino19 October 2026

Bologna

Serie A

  • W2-1Monza31 October 2026
  • W4-2away to AC Milan28 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Cagliari24 October 2026
  • L1-3Inter17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Parma failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Parma had three goals or more.
  • Bologna scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Bologna won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bologna conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Parma11227917-88
8Bologna115241614+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Parma vs Bologna

  • 8 February 2026Bologna 0–1 ParmaSerie A
  • 4 December 2025Bologna 2–1 ParmaCoppa Italia
  • 2 November 2025Parma 1–3 BolognaSerie A
  • 22 February 2025Parma 2–0 BolognaSerie A
  • 6 October 2024Bologna 0–0 ParmaSerie A
  • 7 February 2021Parma 0–3 BolognaSerie A

The full Parma vs Bologna record →

The result against the call

Bologna won 2–1 at Parma. The model had made a win for Bologna its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Arthur Theate 53' for Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini (penalty) 72' for Bologna, Vincent Sierro (penalty) 81' for Parma. Sent off: Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye (Parma) 9'. On expected goals it finished 1.52–3.64.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Parma a 32.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.9% after a win, 32.8% after a draw, 37.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.1%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.