7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Cagliari vs Frosinone Serie A prediction & result

Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Cagliari 1-0 Frosinone.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Cagliari, 25% draw, 52% Frosinone — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Frosinone at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cagliari94%Draw6%Frosinone0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Gabriele Bracaglia
🔁Yael Trepyout: Alessandro Sugamele
28'
⚽Michel Adopoassist: Paul Mendy
38'
45'
🔁Gabriele Bracagliaout: Enzo Tchato
60'
Anthony Oyono
🔁Paul Mendyout: Kevin Carlos
65'
🔁Daniel Maldiniout: Jacopo Fazzini
65'
65'
🔁Giorgi Kvernadzeout: Alessio Zerbin
65'
🔁Romano Schmidout: Luis Hasa
Jacopo Fazzini
69'
Nicola Grandu
70'
71'
🔁Anthony Oyonoout: Tomas Bobcek
🔁Alessandro Romanoout: Riccardo Ciervo
78'
🔁Nicola Granduout: Joseph Liteta
78'
81'
🔁Matteo Cichellaout: Seydou Fini
85'
Ilario Monterisi
Zé Pedro
87'

Match stats — Cagliari vs Frosinone

36%Possession64%
14Shots29
4On target9
3Corners13
0.97xG2.3

Goals against chances

Cagliari1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth
Frosinone0 from 2.30 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cagliari 4-3-3
  • 1E. CaprileG
  • 2Zé PedroD
  • 22R. KoflerD
  • 15J. RodríguezD
  • 36N. GranduD
  • 8M. AdopoM
  • 4A. RomanoM
  • 14A. DeiolaM
  • 19Y. TrepyF
  • 31P. MendyF
  • 70D. MaldiniF
Substitutes
  • 10J. FazziniM
  • 79Y. MassolinM
  • 23B. RadunovićG
  • 27J. LitetaM
  • 9Kevin CarlosF
  • 12A. SherriG
  • 21R. GagliardiniM
  • 28Y. SugawaraD
  • 20R. CiervoF
Coach: F. Pisacane
Frosinone 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. PalmisaniG
  • 20A. OyonoD
  • 3G. CalvaniD
  • 30I. MonterisiD
  • 79G. BracagliaD
  • 16Matteo CichellaM
  • 14G. CalòM
  • 7F. GhedjemisM
  • 10R. SchmidM
  • 17G. KvernadzeM
  • 11D. BîrligeaF
Substitutes
  • 2G. CittadiniD
  • 91S. DesplanchesG
  • 74Omar FayedD
  • 40S. FiniF
  • 70L. HasaM
  • 73P. MasiniM
  • 12M. PisseriG
  • 90E. TchatoD
  • 24A. ZerbinF
Coach: M. Alvini

Form going into Cagliari vs Frosinone

Cagliari

Serie A

  • L1-2away to Lazio1 November 2026
  • L2-4away to AS Roma27 October 2026
  • L0-2Bologna24 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Monza19 October 2026

Frosinone

Serie A

  • W2-0Torino1 November 2026
  • W5-1Lecce29 October 2026
  • D4-4away to Atalanta25 October 2026
  • W4-2Sassuolo16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cagliari did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Cagliari conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Cagliari had three goals or more.
  • Frosinone went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Frosinone scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Frosinone won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cagliari115151015-516
6Frosinone116232415+920

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Frosinone

  • 23 September 2025Cagliari 4–1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
  • 21 January 2024Frosinone 3–1 CagliariSerie A
  • 29 October 2023Cagliari 4–3 FrosinoneSerie A
  • 15 April 2023Cagliari 0–0 FrosinoneSerie B
  • 27 November 2022Frosinone 2–2 CagliariSerie B
  • 20 April 2019Cagliari 1–0 FrosinoneSerie A

The full Cagliari vs Frosinone record →

Leading scorers: Cagliari and Frosinone

Cagliari

GoalsAssists

  • D. Maldini50

Frosinone

GoalsAssists

  • A. Raimondo80
  • G. Calò51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cagliari beat Frosinone 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Frosinone at 52% and given a win for Cagliari 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Michel Adopo 38' for Cagliari. On expected goals it finished 0.97–2.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cagliari a 10.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.5% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 11.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.5%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

For Frosinone the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 21.6% going in: 25.1% after a win, 17.9% after a draw, 16.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.3%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cagliari v Frosinone has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 23% / 25% / 52%: the biggest move is Frosinone's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Cagliari win23%▼ −7
  2. Draw25%▼ −4
  3. Frosinone win52%▲ +11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.