Torino vs Lecce Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Torino 1-1 Lecce.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Torino, 28% draw, 26% Lecce — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Torino at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torino vs Lecce
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20Lucas PerriG
- 23Saúl CocoD
- 44A. IsmajliD
- 15P. ComuzzoD
- 45R. BelghaliM
- 28K. Fitz-JimM
- 21Daniel BragançaM
- 77A. CacciamaniM
- 10N. VlašićM
- 17S. KulenovićF
- 18G. SimeoneF
- 91D. ZapataF
- 19C. AdamsF
- 7Z. AboukhlalF
- 3C. BiraghiD
- 22C. CasadeiM
- 5E. CömertD
- 66G. GineitisM
- 6E. İlkhanM
- 8R. MandragoraM
- 30W. FalconeG
- 17Danilo VeigaD
- 4Kialonda GasparD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 2A. DembéléM
- 77M. KabaM
- 79O. NgomM
- 14Y. MalehM
- 25A. GalloM
- 9N. ŠtulićF
- 7A. Ahmed FatahF
- 31E. ScottD
- 5J. SiebertD
- 11K. N’DriF
- 3C. NdabaD
- 18G. JeanD
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 69W. GeubbelsF
- 16O. GandelmanM
- 8S. FofanaM
Form going into Torino vs Lecce
Torino
Serie A
- L0-2away to Frosinone1 November 2026
- L1-3Como27 October 2026
- W3-2Monza23 October 2026
- W3-0away to Parma19 October 2026
Lecce
Serie A
- L1-2Genoa1 November 2026
- L1-5away to Frosinone29 October 2026
- L0-2Juventus25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Udinese18 October 2026
What these results say
- Torino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Torino conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Torino had three goals or more.
- Lecce failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lecce scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lecce conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Torino vs Lecce
- 1 February 2026Torino 1–0 LecceSerie A
- 30 November 2025Lecce 2–1 TorinoSerie A
- 18 May 2025Lecce 1–0 TorinoSerie A
- 15 September 2024Torino 0–0 LecceSerie A
- 16 February 2024Torino 2–0 LecceSerie A
- 28 October 2023Lecce 0–1 TorinoSerie A
Leading scorers: Torino and Lecce
Torino
GoalsAssists
- C. Adams40
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Torino and Lecce drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Torino at 46% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kialonda Gaspar (own goal) 60' for Torino, Daniel Bragança (own goal) 73' for Lecce. On expected goals it finished 0.97–0.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Torino a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.4% after a win, 6.3% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.3%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
For Lecce the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 46.9% going in: 38.6% after a win, 45.8% after a draw, 51.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 45.8%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Torino v Lecce has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Torino's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Torino win46%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- Lecce win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.