Nice vs Rennes Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Nice 5-2 Rennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Nice, 26% draw, 43% Rennes — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Rennes at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nice vs Rennes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Y. DioufG
- 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
- 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
- 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
- 92J. ClaussM
- 39D. CoulibalyM
- 6H. BoudaouiM
- 27N. NkounkouM
- 10S. DiopM
- 9M. AmouraM
- 11E. WahiF
- 8M. SansonM
- 22I. CamaraM
- 77T. BoulhendiG
- 7G. HeinM
- 21I. JanssonF
- 84H. KoutouneD
- 41D. MoranaF
- 29N. NgoumouF
- 87E. PereiraM
- 16N. LemaîtreG
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 95P. FrankowskiM
- 17S. SzymańskiM
- 21V. RongierM
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 18M. NagidaM
- 22B. DiaF
- 11Mousa TamariF
- 60Kilian BelazzougG
- 5Gonçalo OliveiraD
- 45M. CamaraM
- 6D. CisséM
- 12Eliezer MayendaF
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 10L. BlasF
- 90I. SoumaréF
Form going into Nice vs Rennes
Nice
Ligue 1
- W2-1away to Stade Brestois 2923 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lyon18 October 2026
- W2-1Strasbourg11 October 2026
Rennes
Ligue 1
- W3-0Strasbourg25 October 2026
- L3-4away to Paris FC18 October 2026
- W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nice vs Rennes
Nice and Rennes have met 7 times in the records we hold, Nice has won 4 of them to Rennes's 3.
The record
Nice won the last one 5–2 on 30 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 |
| Rennes | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 25 goals, an average of 3.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 30 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Nice 5–2 Rennes - 8 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Nice 0–4 Rennes - 26 Oct 2025
Ligue 1Rennes 1–2 Nice - 10 May 2025
Ligue 1Rennes 2–0 Nice - 3 Jan 2025
Ligue 1Nice 3–2 Rennes - 13 Jan 2024
Ligue 1Rennes 2–0 Nice - 5 Nov 2023
Ligue 1Nice 2–0 Rennes
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Rennes' attack rates 38% above Nice's, and Nice concede 20% fewer than Rennes. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Nice and Rennes
Nice
GoalsAssists
- E. Wahi62
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- B. Dia50
- S. Szymański41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nice beat Rennes 5–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rennes at 43% and given a win for Nice 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sepe Elye Wahi (penalty) 12' for Nice, Sebastian Szymański 15' for Rennes, Sepe Elye Wahi (penalty) 34' for Nice, Jonathan Clauss 45+2' for Nice, Mohamed Amoura 52' for Nice, Boulaye Dia (penalty) 58' for Rennes, Sepe Elye Wahi 73' for Nice. On expected goals it finished 3.47–2.66.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nice a 6.1% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.2% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.2%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
For Rennes the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 22.5% going in: 26.3% after a win, 21.2% after a draw, 16.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.1%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.