Atalanta vs Pafos UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 3-1 Pafos.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Atalanta, 23% draw, 15% Pafos — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atalanta at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Pafos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 23S. KolasinacD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 8M. PasalicM
- 99E. ElmasM
- 18G. RaspadoriM
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 57M. SportielloG
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 40R. ObricD
- 13EdersonM
- 41J. IdeleM
- 10L. SamardzicM
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 11J. RoweF
- 90N. KrstovicF
- 99R. MajeckiG
- 7BrunoD
- 3S. MmaeeD
- 4David LuizD
- 14N. IoannouD
- 30V. DragomirM
- 26I. SunjicM
- 88PepeM
- 8D. QuinaF
- 18LeleF
- 20BielF
- 71M. PapastylianouG
- 82P. PetrouG
- 12K. SemaM
- 72K. IoannouD
- 6GugaM
- 50A. BritoM
- 60C. EfzonaM
- 42G. MichaelM
- 77J. CorreiaD
Form going into Atalanta vs Pafos
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Venezia12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
Pafos
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026
- W4-2Dinamo Tirana27 August 2026
- D1-1away to Dinamo Tirana20 August 2026
- D3-3Red Bull Salzburg13 August 2026
- L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg6 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pafos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pafos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Pafos.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 30 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Atalanta beat Pafos 3–1. The model had made a win for Atalanta its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: E. Elmas 1' for Atalanta, G. Raspadori (penalty) 18' for Atalanta, G. Scamacca 44' for Atalanta, Biel 88' for Pafos. On expected goals it finished 3.47–0.91.
How the call on Atalanta v Pafos has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 63% / 24% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 62% / 23% / 15%: the biggest move is Pafos's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Atalanta win62%▼ −1
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Pafos win15%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.