15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom UEFA Europa League prediction & result

epet ARENA, Prague
Referee: Martin Matosa
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Sparta Praha, 20% draw, 13% Lillestrom — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sparta Praha at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sparta Praha98%Draw2%Lillestrom0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Martin Suchomel
18'
28'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
Ebrima Singhateh
30'
🔁Ebrima Singhatehout: Josimar Alcocer
45'
⚽Josimar Alcocerassist: Jonatan Braut Brunes
56'
🔁Sivert Heggheim Mannsverkout: Roman Macek
61'
🔁Matej Jurasekout: John Mercado
61'
🔁Martin Suchomelout: Ki-Jana Hoever
61'
65'
🔁Daniel Bassiout: Eric Kitolano
65'
🔁Fredrik Gulbrandsenout: Thomas Lehne Olsen
70'
🔁Gustav Kjolstad Nyheimout: Henrik Molvaer Melland
73'
🔁Winston Robin Yaw Paintsilout: Frederik Elkaer
73'
🔁Felix Váout: Gustav Nordh
Roman Macek
77'
🔁Andy Irvingout: Santiago Eneme
85'
90+1'
⚽Thomas Lehne Olsenassist: Gustav Nordh
90+3'
Henrik Molvaer Melland

Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

53%Possession47%
15Shots6
8On target2
6Corners1
1.12xG0.8

Goals against chances

Sparta Praha1 from 1.12 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lillestrom1 from 0.80 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovčíkG
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 19A. ŠevínskýD
  • 6T. GuddalD
  • 15V. VitályosD
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 20S. MannsverkM
  • 31M. JurásekM
  • 38H. SochurekM
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 14J. Braut BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 30J. ZelenýD
  • 26P. VydraM
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 21J. GrimaldoF
  • 5Santiago EnemeM
  • 7J. AlcócerF
  • 25K. HoeverD
  • 3P. KadeřábekD
  • 28R. MacekM
Coach: Brian Priske
Lillestrom 4-3-3
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 28R. GabrielsenD
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 26Y. PaintsilD
  • 29Y. IbrahimajM
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 14G. NyheimM
  • 22D. BassiF
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
  • 20VáF
Substitutes
  • 7L. AlperudM
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 15G. NordhF
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 5S. FossD
  • 10T. Lehne OlsenF
  • 18K. KrygårdM
  • 1S. HagerupG
Coach: H. Ødegaard

Form going into Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

Sparta Praha

UEFA Europa League

  • W4-1away to Ararat-Armenia16 September 2026

Lillestrom

UEFA Europa League

  • L1-2Torreense17 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Sparta Praha41126604
34Lillestrom4013210-81

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Sparta Praha and Lillestrom drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sparta Praha at 67% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Josimar Alcocer 56' for Sparta Praha, Thomas Lehne Olsen 90+1' for Lillestrom. On expected goals it finished 1.12–0.80.

How the call on Sparta Praha v Lillestrom has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 67% / 20% / 13%: the biggest move is Sparta Praha's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Sparta Praha win67%▲ +7
  2. Draw20%▼ −4
  3. Lillestrom win13%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.