15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Referee: J. Goncalves
Full time1 – 2

Final score: CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% CSKA Sofia, 25% draw, 48% Monaco — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Monaco at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Sofia0%Draw4%Monaco96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽P. Brunnerassist: S. Idumbo
43'
⚽A. Fatiassist: P. Brunner
S. Sensi
51'
59'
🔁T. Minaminoout: A. Golovin
59'
🔁L. Camaraout: D. Zakaria
59'
🔁M. Salisuout: Nazinho
64'
🔁S. Idumboout: M. Abline
M. Ebong
69'
🔁Leo Pereiraout: C. Itu
73'
🔁L. Godoyout: J. Zwarts
73'
⚽J. Zwartsassist: S. Sensi
76'
77'
🔁A. Fatiout: A. Soubeir
78'
E. Diop
🔁M. Ebongout: J. Eto'o
85'
🔁I. Pittasout: I. Solet
85'
🔁D. Almeidaout: T. Ivanov
85'
A. Martino
90+5'

Match stats — CSKA Sofia vs Monaco

50%Possession50%
21Shots10
5On target5
12Corners1
1.28xG1.32

Goals against chances

CSKA Sofia1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth
Monaco2 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CSKA Sofia 4-1-4-1
  • 21Fedor LapoukhovG
  • 2PastorD
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 32Facundo RodríguezD
  • 17Ángelo MartinoD
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 28Ioannis PittasM
  • 7Max EbongM
  • 8Stefano SensiM
  • 38Léo PereiraM
  • 9Leandro GodoyF
Substitutes
  • 67Cătălin ItuM
  • 10Joël ZwartsF
  • 14Teodor IvanovD
  • 94Isaac SoletM
  • 99James Eto'oM
  • 25Dimitar EvtimovG
  • 31Daniel NikolovG
  • 19Andrey YordanovD
  • 91Aleks TunchevD
Monaco 4-4-2
  • 1Lukáš HrádeckýG
  • 4Jordan TezeD
  • 72Sadibou SanéD
  • 22Mohammed SalisuD
  • 13Christian MawissaD
  • 18Takumi MinaminoM
  • 8Lamine CamaraM
  • 37Edan DiopM
  • 17Stanis Idumbo MuzamboM
  • 29Paris BrunnerF
  • 31Ansu FatiF
Substitutes
  • 20NazinhoD
  • 6Denis ZakariaM
  • 10Aleksandr GolovinM
  • 11Matthis AblineF
  • 46Anis SoubeirM
  • 16Philipp KöhnG
  • 2VandersonD
  • 7Mathys DetourbetF
  • 19Pape CabralM

Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Monaco

CSKA Sofia

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
  • W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026

Monaco

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
  • W2-1Lens18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
  • W2-0Marseille30 August 2026

What these results say

  • CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Monaco went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Monaco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Monaco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
28CSKA Sofia301246-21
4Monaco330071+69

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: CSKA Sofia and Monaco

CSKA Sofia

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Monaco

GoalsAssists

  • Paris Josua Brunner41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Monaco won 2–1 at CSKA Sofia. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Monaco at 48%. The goals: P. Brunner 3' for Monaco, A. Fati 43' for Monaco, J. Zwarts 76' for CSKA Sofia. On expected goals it finished 1.28–1.32.

How the call on CSKA Sofia v Monaco has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 27% / 25% / 48%: the biggest move is Monaco's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. CSKA Sofia win27%=
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Monaco win48%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.