15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Torreense vs Sunderland UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Estadio Algarve
Referee: Enea Jorgji
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Torreense 1-2 Sunderland.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Torreense, 29% draw, 38% Sunderland — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sunderland at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Torreense3%Draw93%Sunderland4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Volnei Feltesassist: Amine Oudrhiri
37'
Jonathan Mutombo Mawesi
43'
45'
Trai Hume
58'
🔁Malick Fofanaout: Enzo Le Fée
58'
🔁Nilson Anguloout: Granit Xhaka
59'
🔁Trai Humeout: Nordi Mukiele
59'
🔁Dayann Methalieout: Reinildo Isnard Mandava
🔁Manuel Pozoout: Ianique Tavares Stopira
63'
🔁Jonathan Mutombo Mawesiout: David Bruno
63'
67'
⚽Jules Ahokaassist: Nordi Mukiele
🔁João Marquesout: Dany Jean
73'
🔁Karem Zoabiout: L. Quintero
73'
79'
Enzo Le Fée
85'
Nordi Mukiele
89'
•Timur Tutierov
🔁Malik Abubakariout: musa drammeh
90+2'
90+3'
⚽Noah Sadikiassist: Granit Xhaka

Match stats — Torreense vs Sunderland

39%Possession61%
3Shots22
1On target5
2Corners9
0.09xG1.82

Goals against chances

Torreense1 from 0.09 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sunderland2 from 1.82 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Torreense 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas PaesG
  • 45J. MutomboD
  • 5M. DiadieD
  • 4Volnei FeltesD
  • 23Javi VázquezD
  • 6A. OudrhiriM
  • 8Alejandro AlfaroM
  • 11Manu PozoM
  • 33João MarquesM
  • 19K. ZoabiM
  • 27M. AbubakariF
Substitutes
  • 2StopiraD
  • 29L. QuinteroF
  • 7D. JeanF
  • 53Rodrigo GuerreiroD
  • 17M. DrammehF
  • 22David BrunoD
  • 44S. HenriksenG
  • 3Juan María AlcedoD
  • 14Jorge AguirreF
Coach: Luís Tralhão
Sunderland 4-2-3-1
  • 22R. RoefsG
  • 32T. HumeD
  • 13L. O'NienD
  • 15O. AldereteD
  • 6D. MethalieD
  • 29Jules AhokaM
  • 27N. SadikiM
  • 10N. AnguloM
  • 11C. RiggM
  • 39M. FofanaM
  • 57Timur TuterovF
Substitutes
  • 9B. BrobbeyF
  • 4K. DansoD
  • 19H. DiarraM
  • 28E. Le FéeM
  • 17ReinildoD
  • 21S. MooreG
  • 20N. MukieleD
  • 77T. ProctorM
  • 47T. OgunsuyiF
Coach: R. Le Bris

Form going into Torreense vs Sunderland

Torreense

UEFA Europa League

  • W2-1away to Lillestrom17 September 2026

Sunderland

UEFA Europa League

  • W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Torreense420279-26
11Sunderland42114407

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Sunderland won 2–1 at Torreense. The model had made a win for Sunderland its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Volnei Feltes 37' for Torreense, Jules Ahoka 67' for Sunderland, Noah Sadiki 90+3' for Sunderland. On expected goals it finished 0.09–1.82.

How the call on Torreense v Sunderland has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 29% / 38%: the biggest move is Torreense's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Torreense win33%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Sunderland win38%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.