15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Demrozi Stadium
Referee: S. Ebner
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 FC Midtjylland.

Before kick-off the model made it 16% Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 22% draw, 62% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 6.25, 4.55 and 1.61.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Midtjylland at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Egnatia Rrogozhinë3%Draw91%FC Midtjylland6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽I. Grudaassist: A. Kryeziu
26'
33'
⚽Cho Gue-Sungassist: R. Kristensen
40'
•Cho Gue-Sung
46'
🔁Hong Hyun-Seokout: K. Watjen
46'
🔁Cho Gue-Sungout: F. Etim
46'
🔁D. Martinezout: S. Iheanacho
56'
🔁M. Rajovicout: S. Johannesen
🔁G. Jaimeout: G. Smajli
66'
🔁A. Albaneseout: I. Diabate
66'
🔁D. Adjessaout: J. Montenegro
72'
77'
🔁D. Castilloout: M. Uhre
🔁I. Grudaout: Fernando Medeiros
81'
🔁K. Loukiliout: N. Ajetovikj
81'
I. Diabate
86'

Match stats — Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland

52%Possession48%
12Shots13
5On target5
2Corners6
0.59xG1.37

Goals against chances

Egnatia Rrogozhinë1 from 0.59 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Midtjylland1 from 1.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 4-3-3
  • 98Mario DajsinaniG
  • 22Guillem JaimeD
  • 33Eneo BitriD
  • 28Eljon SotaD
  • 29Andrey YagoD
  • 17Altin KryeziuM
  • 6Albano AleksiM
  • 20Karim LoukiliM
  • 77Ildi GrudaF
  • 2Daniel AdjessaF
  • 10Alessandro AlbaneseF
Substitutes
  • 55Geralb SmajliD
  • 8Ibrahim DiabatéM
  • 99Jurguens MontenegroF
  • 24Numan AjetovikjD
  • 7Fernando MedeirosM
  • 12Bruno PujaG
  • 1Levan TandilashviliG
  • 4Zamiq AliyevD
  • 13Alessandro KacbufiD
FC Midtjylland 3-5-2
  • 25Nordin BakkerG
  • 5Rasmus KristensenD
  • 4Ousmane DiaoD
  • 22Mads Bech SørensenD
  • 98David Martínez MoralesM
  • 20Hong Hyun-seokM
  • 8Philip BillingM
  • 21Denil CastilloM
  • 38Julius EmefileM
  • 10Gue-sung ChoF
  • 9Mileta RajovićF
Substitutes
  • 29Kjell WätjenM
  • 18Stanley IheanachoF
  • 90Friday EtimF
  • 27Sofus JohannesenM
  • 17Mikael UhreF
  • 60Mark UgbohG
  • 30Ovie EjeheriG
  • 15Beni JuniorD
  • 34Abdou Aziz NdiayeD

Form going into Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Lillestrom27 August 2026
  • D0-0Lillestrom20 August 2026
  • W5-1Shamrock Rovers13 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers4 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Celje28 July 2026

FC Midtjylland

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1FC Copenhagen11 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
  • W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
  • D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Aarhus2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Midtjylland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
26Egnatia Rrogozhinë302124-22
34FC Midtjylland301228-61

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Egnatia Rrogozhinë and FC Midtjylland

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

FC Midtjylland

GoalsAssists

  • Cho Gue-Sung30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and FC Midtjylland drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Midtjylland at 62% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: I. Gruda 26' for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, Cho Gue-Sung 33' for FC Midtjylland. On expected goals it finished 0.59–1.37.

How the call on Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 22% / 26% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 16% / 22% / 62%: the biggest move is FC Midtjylland's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Egnatia Rrogozhinë win16%▼ −6
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. FC Midtjylland win62%▲ +10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.