15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Amex Stadium, Brighton
Referee: M. Redder
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Brighton 4-0 Kauno Žalgiris.

Before kick-off the model made it 88% Brighton, 8% draw, 4% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.14, 12.50 and 25.00.

Most likely scoreline: 4-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Brighton at 88%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brighton99%Draw1%Kauno Žalgiris0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Fabien Ourega
•Georginio Rutter
41'
⚽G. Rutterassist: I. Osman
41'
⚽J. Hinshelwoodassist: G. Rutter
45'
🔁O. Boscagliout: M. De Cuyper
46'
🔁L. Dunkout: L. Vuskovic
46'
46'
🔁F. Ouregaout: R. Lekiatas
46'
🔁Leo Ribeiroout: L. Krekovic
⚽G. Rutterassist: I. Osman
53'
🔁P. Grossout: Y. Ayari
57'
🔁J. Hinshelwoodout: P. David
57'
57'
🔁F. Baldassarraout: A. Kalik
57'
🔁Renan Oliveiraout: G. Debeljuh
61'
🔁A. Benchaibout: V. Slivka
🔁I. Osmanout: Y. Ibrahim
67'
⚽M. O'Rileyassist: Y. Ibrahim
67'

Match stats — Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris

78%Possession22%
35Shots4
9On target1
13Corners0
4.02xG0.04

Goals against chances

Brighton4 from 4.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kauno Žalgiris0 from 0.04 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Brighton 4-3-3
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 20CostinhaD
  • 5L. DunkD
  • 30M. SvobodaD
  • 21O. BoscagliD
  • 13P. GrossM
  • 35M. YalcouyeM
  • 8J. HinshelwoodM
  • 33M. O'RileyF
  • 10G. RutterF
  • 15I. OsmanF
Substitutes
  • 23J. SteeleG
  • 38T. McGillG
  • 24F. KadiogluD
  • 29M. De CuyperD
  • 44L. VuskovicD
  • 26Y. AyariM
  • 25D. GomezM
  • 14C. AndresM
  • 59Y. IbrahimM
Coach: Fabian Hurzeler
Kauno Žalgiris 4-1-4-1
  • 55T. SvedkauskasG
  • 45J. MoutachyD
  • 3A. TolordavaD
  • 23A. HernandezD
  • 37N. Iyobosa EdokpolorD
  • 32F. BaldassarraM
  • 70F. OuregaM
  • 7A. BenchaibM
  • 8Y. KarashimaM
  • 15Leo RibeiroM
  • 19Renan OliveiraF
Substitutes
  • 22D. MikelionisG
  • 77R. LekiatasD
  • 33M. KonatarD
  • 62L. I. KastratiD
  • 14V. SlivkaM
  • 17I. FiolicM
  • 20A. KalikM
  • 10G. SirgedasM
  • 27G. DebeljuhF
Coach: Eivinas Cerniauskas

Form going into Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris

Brighton

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
  • W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
  • W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
  • D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026

Kauno Žalgiris

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Beşiktaş27 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Beşiktaş20 August 2026
  • L1-2Dinamo Zagreb11 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Dinamo Zagreb4 August 2026
  • W1-0KI Klaksvik29 July 2026

What these results say

  • Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Brighton321050+57
36Kauno Žalgiris3003111-100

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Brighton beat Kauno Žalgiris 4–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Brighton at 88%. The goals: G. Rutter 41' for Brighton, J. Hinshelwood 45' for Brighton, G. Rutter 53' for Brighton, M. O'Riley 67' for Brighton. On expected goals it finished 4.02–0.04.

How the call on Brighton v Kauno Žalgiris has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 79% / 14% / 7% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 88% / 8% / 4%: the biggest move is Brighton's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Brighton win88%▲ +9
  2. Draw8%▼ −6
  3. Kauno Žalgiris win4%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.