29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Atlanta United FC 0-2 Charlotte.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Atlanta United FC, 25% draw, 28% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atlanta United FC at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atlanta United FC0%Draw1%Charlotte99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽I. Toklomatiassist: P. Biel
45+3'
D. Diani
48'
⚽L. Abadaassist: A. Saint-Maximin
🔁M. Edwardsout: R. Hernandez
64'
🔁W. Reillyout: A. Gill
64'
🔁T. Muyumbaout: S. Alzate
64'
🔁F. Picaultout: Sergio Santos
64'
🔁M. Almironout: E. Dovlo
70'
77'
🔁A. Westwoodout: B. Bronico
77'
🔁A. Saint-Maximinout: R. Aloko
77'
🔁I. Toklomatiout: A. Goodwin
A. Gill
85'
85'
🔁D. Schneggout: N. Byrne
90'
🔁P. Bielout: L. de la Torre

Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte

59%Possession41%
18Shots12
3On target5
11Corners7
0.86xG1.59

Goals against chances

Atlanta United FC0 from 0.86 xGless than the chances were worth
Charlotte2 from 1.59 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. HoyosG
  • 55T. JacobD
  • 27P. DiazD
  • 6J. AlonsoD
  • 47M. EdwardsD
  • 48C. SanchezM
  • 28W. ReillyM
  • 8T. MuyumbaM
  • 59A. MiranchukF
  • 22F. PicaultF
  • 10M. AlmironF
Substitutes
  • 42J. HibbertG
  • 2R. HernandezD
  • 4E. MihajD
  • 16A. GillM
  • 7S. AlzateM
  • 67E. DovloF
  • 30C. TogashiF
  • 19Sergio SantosF
  • 78A. JardinesM
Coach: Gerardo Martino
Charlotte 4-3-3
  • 1K. KahlinaG
  • 35W. ClearyD
  • 22H. KesslerD
  • 3T. ReamD
  • 23D. SchneggD
  • 16P. BielM
  • 8A. WestwoodM
  • 28D. DianiM
  • 11L. AbadaF
  • 9I. ToklomatiF
  • 10A. Saint-MaximinF
Substitutes
  • 21T. MillerG
  • 14N. ByrneD
  • 4A. PrivettD
  • 44M. AgyemangD
  • 17L. de la TorreM
  • 13B. BronicoM
  • 37R. AlokoF
  • 7A. GoodwinF
  • 25T. SmallsF
Coach: Dean Smith

Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte

Atlanta United FC

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Minnesota United FC20 August 2026
  • W2-1New York Red Bulls15 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Philadelphia Union1 August 2026
  • L1-4away to New England Revolution25 July 2026

Charlotte

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1DC United22 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Toronto FC19 August 2026
  • W3-1Columbus Crew15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Chicago Fire2 August 2026
  • W2-0away to New York Red Bulls25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Atlanta United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
  • Charlotte scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Charlotte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Atlanta United FC3496194360-1733
5Charlotte34159106651+1554

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte

  • 23 July 2026Charlotte 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 April 2026Charlotte 0–2 Atlanta United FCUS Open Cup
  • 19 July 2025Atlanta United FC 2–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 1 March 2025Charlotte 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 August 2024Charlotte 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 2 June 2024Atlanta United FC 2–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Atlanta United FC and Charlotte

Atlanta United FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.

Charlotte

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toklomati Giorno155

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Charlotte won 2–0 at Atlanta United FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlanta United FC at 47% and given a win for Charlotte 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: I. Toklomati 22' for Charlotte, L. Abada 48' for Charlotte. On expected goals it finished 0.86–1.59.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.