29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

Toronto FC vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

BMO Field, Toronto
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Toronto FC, 26% draw, 33% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toronto FC at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Toronto FC vs New York City FC

Toronto FC

  • W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026
  • D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026
  • W2-1New England Revolution15 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New York City FC31 July 2026
  • L1-2away to DC United25 July 2026

New York City FC

  • D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026
  • L2-3Philadelphia Union16 August 2026
  • D1-1Toronto FC31 July 2026
  • W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs New York City FC

  • 31 July 2026New York City FC 1–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 3 July 2025New York City FC 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 26 April 2025Toronto FC 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 11 May 2024Toronto FC 2–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2024New York City FC 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 24 September 2023New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Toronto FC and New York City FC

Toronto FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

New York City FC

  • N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.