New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% New York Red Bulls, 25% draw, 33% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New York Red Bulls at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazanD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 7C. CowellM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaM
- 16J. HallF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 5O. ValenciaD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 17C. HarperF
- 37M. SofoF
- 91M. JimenezF
- 92D. NelichF
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44N. PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6C. SullivanM
- 21D. Jean JacquesM
- 4J. LukicM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 2G. MartinezD
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 28A. AnelloF
- 23E. AlladohF
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
- W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
- L0-2Charlotte25 July 2026
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
- D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
- W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026
- W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
What these results say
- New York Red Bulls conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
- 22 July 2026Philadelphia Union 3–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 16 August 2025New York Red Bulls 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 13 August 2025Philadelphia Union 3–2 New York Red BullsUS Open Cup
- 12 July 2025Philadelphia Union 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2024New York Red Bulls 0–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2024Philadelphia Union 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union won 3–1 at New York Red Bulls. The model had leaned towards a win for New York Red Bulls at 42% and given a win for Philadelphia Union 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Iloski 20' for Philadelphia Union, C. Sullivan 50' for Philadelphia Union, N. Pierre 64' for Philadelphia Union, E. M. Choupo-Moting 74' for New York Red Bulls. On expected goals it finished 2.05–2.53.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.