24 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Referee: Victor Rivas, USA
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Atlanta United FC 2-3 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Atlanta United FC, 27% draw, 39% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chicago Fire at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atlanta United FC0%Draw4%Chicago Fire96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tomás Jacobassist: Miguel Almirón
4'
30'
⚽Anton Saletros
38'
Djé D'Avilla
46'
🔁Djé D'Avillaout: Anzor Mekvabishvili
51'
⚽Anzor Mekvabishvili
Lucas Hoyos
59'
60'
⚽Philip Zinckernagelassist: Anton Saletros
🔁Ajani Fortuneout: Fafà Picault
61'
🔁Aleksey Miranchukout: Tristan Muyumba
62'
⚽Breel Emboloassist: Elías Báez
67'
69'
🔁Robert Lewandowskiout: Johan Arath Gomez
69'
🔁Noah Allenout: Puso Dithejane
69'
🔁Philip Zinckernagelout: Andrew Gutman
Paulo Díaz
74'
79'
Anzor Mekvabishvili
🔁Paulo Díazout: Matthew Edwards
80'
81'
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
84'
Johan Arath Gomez
Junior Alonso
84'
🔁Giuliano Galoppoout: Luke Brennan
87'
90+1'
🔁Jonathan Bambaout: Leonardo Barroso

Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire

39%Possession61%
8Shots12
3On target4
4Corners5
0.85xG1.59

Goals against chances

Atlanta United FC2 from 0.85 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chicago Fire3 from 1.59 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. HoyosG
  • 55T. JacobD
  • 27P. DíazD
  • 6J. AlonsoD
  • 3E. BáezD
  • 35A. FortuneM
  • 14M. AmaroM
  • 11G. GaloppoM
  • 59A. MiranchukF
  • 36B. EmboloF
  • 10M. AlmirónF
Substitutes
  • 8T. MuyumbaM
  • 7S. AlzateM
  • 20L. BrennanM
  • 47Matthew EdwardsD
  • 42Jayden HibbertG
  • 4E. MihajD
  • 22F. PicaultF
  • 48C. SanchezM
  • 19Sergio SantosF
Coach: G. Martino
Chicago Fire 4-3-3
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
  • 4M. MbokaziD
  • 32N. AllenD
  • 6A. SalétrosM
  • 42T. D'AvillaM
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieM
  • 11P. ZinckernagelF
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 19J. BambaF
Substitutes
  • 29D. PorębaM
  • 22M. PinedaD
  • 35S. OregelM
  • 23A. MekvabishviliM
  • 18J. GómezF
  • 12P. DithejaneF
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
Coach: G. Berhalter

Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire

Atlanta United FC

Major League Soccer

  • L1-3Inter Miami17 October 2026

Chicago Fire

Major League Soccer

  • L0-1away to New England Revolution17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Atlanta United FC3496194360-1733
4Chicago Fire34167116454+1055

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire

  • 12 April 2026Chicago Fire 1–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 16 July 2025Atlanta United FC 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 10 May 2025Chicago Fire 2–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 April 2024Chicago Fire 0–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 March 2024Atlanta United FC 3–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 21 May 2023Chicago Fire 3–3 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Chicago Fire won 3–2 at Atlanta United FC. The model had made a win for Chicago Fire its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tomás Jacob 4' for Atlanta United FC, Anton Saletros 30' for Chicago Fire, Anzor Mekvabishvili 51' for Chicago Fire, Philip Zinckernagel 60' for Chicago Fire, Breel Embolo 67' for Atlanta United FC. On expected goals it finished 0.85–1.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlanta United FC a 83.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 68.9% after a win, 86.8% after a draw, 93.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 93.1%, 10 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atlanta United FC v Chicago Fire has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Atlanta United FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Atlanta United FC win34%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Chicago Fire win39%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.