Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Atlanta United FC 1-3 Inter Miami.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Atlanta United FC, 23% draw, 52% Inter Miami — fair odds of 4.00, 4.35 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Inter Miami at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 27P. DíazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BáezD
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 14M. AmaroM
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 59A. MiranchukF
- 36B. EmboloF
- 10M. AlmirónF
- 7S. AlzateM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 35A. FortuneM
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 4E. MihajD
- 22F. PicaultF
- 48C. SanchezM
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 97D. St. ClairG
- 2G. LujánD
- 5CasemiroD
- 16MicaelD
- 3ReguilónD
- 7R. De PaulM
- 22D. AyalaM
- 80M. GalarzaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 9L. SuárezF
- 19G. BerterameF
- 37M. FalcónD
- 17I. FrayD
- 20S. MoralesM
- 4F. MuraD
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 34R. Ríos NovoG
- 11Riquelme FillipiF
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 88A. ShawM
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to CF Montreal14 October 2026
- L1-3FC Cincinnati10 October 2026
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
Inter Miami
All competitions we cover
- W2-0New York City FC14 October 2026
- W4-0DC United10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Atlanta United FC | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 33 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 80 | 59 | +21 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
- 5 September 2026Inter Miami 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 11 October 2025Inter Miami 4–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025Atlanta United FC 1–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 10 November 2024Inter Miami 2–3 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 November 2024Atlanta United FC 2–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 26 October 2024Inter Miami 2–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2613
- L. Suárez166
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Inter Miami won 3–1 at Atlanta United FC. The model had made a win for Inter Miami its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Germán Berterame 45' for Inter Miami, Lionel Messi 56' for Inter Miami, Lionel Messi 60' for Inter Miami, Fafà Picault (penalty) 89' for Atlanta United FC. On expected goals it finished 2.36–1.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlanta United FC a 71.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 49.2% after a win, 71.0% after a draw, 80.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.9%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.
For Inter Miami the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 98.4% going in: 99.6% after a win, 98.3% after a draw, 96.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.6%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atlanta United FC v Inter Miami has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 29% / 25% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 25% / 23% / 52%: the biggest move is Inter Miami's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Atlanta United FC win25%▼ −4
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Inter Miami win52%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.