17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
Referee: Marcos De Oliveira
Full time0 – 2

Final score: New York Red Bulls 0-2 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% New York Red Bulls, 26% draw, 33% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

New York Red Bulls at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Justin Che (OG)
28'
🔁Kobe Franklinout: Jackson Gilman
🔁Adri Mehmetiout: Emil Forsberg
45'
🔁Cade Cowellout: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
45'
52'
Zane Monlouis
🔁Cameron Harperout: Jorge Ruvalcaba
60'
🔁Dylan Nealisout: Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
60'
67'
Lewis Morgan
68'
🔁Theo Corbeanuout: Derrick Etienne Jr.
68'
🔁Djordje Mihailovicout: Dániel Sallói
🔁Justin Cheout: Pedro Castro
71'
82'
⚽Dániel Sallóiassist: Jonathan Osorio
86'
🔁Lewis Morganout: Alonso
86'
🔁Josh Sargentout: Richard Chukwu
87'
Derrick Etienne Jr.

Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

68%Possession32%
15Shots6
4On target4
7Corners1
1.01xG0.66

Goals against chances

New York Red Bulls0 from 1.01 xGless than the chances were worth
Toronto FC2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New York Red Bulls 4-3-3
  • 34E. HorvathG
  • 12D. NealisD
  • 2J. CheD
  • 14J. BazánD
  • 59D. PadelfordD
  • 48R. DonkorM
  • 15A. MehmetiM
  • 37M. SofoM
  • 17C. HarperF
  • 16J. HallF
  • 7C. CowellF
Substitutes
  • 11J. RuvalcabaF
  • 13E. Choupo-MotingF
  • 10E. ForsbergM
  • 60S. KoneM
  • 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
  • 77J. McCarthyG
  • 88Pedro CastroM
  • 26T. ParkerD
  • 56M. Dos SantosD
Coach: Michael Bradley
Toronto FC 4-4-2
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 19K. FranklinD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 7T. CorbeanuM
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 10D. MihailovićM
  • 9J. SargentF
  • 90L. MorganF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 27A. PiedrahitaF
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 11D. EtienneF
  • 96R. ChukwuD
  • 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
  • 20D. SallóiF
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 44R. EdwardsD
Coach: R. Fraser

Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

New York Red Bulls

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to DC United14 October 2026
  • W4-1San Diego10 October 2026
  • L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
  • W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026

Toronto FC

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3Orlando City SC14 October 2026
  • W2-1CF Montreal10 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026

What these results say

  • New York Red Bulls scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10New York Red Bulls34126164862-1442
12Toronto FC34912135267-1539

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

  • 14 March 2026Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 25 June 2025Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 22 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 2 October 2024Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 28 July 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Toronto FCLeagues Cup
  • 22 June 2024New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Toronto FC won 2–0 at New York Red Bulls. The model had leaned towards a win for New York Red Bulls at 41% and given a win for Toronto FC 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Justin Che (own goal) 3' for Toronto FC, Dániel Sallói 82' for Toronto FC. On expected goals it finished 1.01–0.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave New York Red Bulls a 12.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.1% after a win, 12.5% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.7%, 13.2 points higher than before the match.

For Toronto FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 36.4% going in: 16.9% after a win, 36.3% after a draw, 51.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.9%, 19.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is New York Red Bulls's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. New York Red Bulls win41%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Toronto FC win33%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.