Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 3-2 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Minnesota United FC, 24% draw, 45% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CallenderG
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
- 28J. DíazD
- 23M. DugganD
- 21B. HlongwaneM
- 25N. TriantisM
- 20W. TrappM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 18M. GonzalezM
- 16A. JacksonF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 5N. RomeroD
- 94Kayne RizvanovichG
- 26J. PereyraM
- 11M. MaloneF
- 30O. GeneM
- 3K. DuncanD
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 15M. BoxallD
- 1R. BürkiG
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 27F. FallD
- 59M. JoynerM
- 21D. PolvaraM
- 28M. PerezM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 77Jeong Sang-BinM
- 11S. BecherF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 18C. BrunetM
- 42D. DownsF
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 19C. HolseF
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 23A. MățanM
- 7T. OstrákM
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Colorado Rapids15 October 2026
- D2-2Houston Dynamo11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
- L2-3Los Angeles Galaxy20 September 2026
- L2-4away to St. Louis City13 September 2026
St. Louis City
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps15 October 2026
- W6-2Los Angeles Galaxy11 October 2026
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 44 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City
- 13 September 2026St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 27 July 2025St. Louis City 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- 18 May 2025Minnesota United FC 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 October 2024Minnesota United FC 4–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah184
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Minnesota United FC beat St. Louis City 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 45% and given a win for Minnesota United FC 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Rafael Navarro Leal 4' for St. Louis City, Sang-bin Jung 10' for St. Louis City, Aziel Jackson 49' for Minnesota United FC, Kelvin Yeboah 68' for Minnesota United FC, Marcus Caldeira 86' for Minnesota United FC. On expected goals it finished 2.67–1.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Minnesota United FC a 53.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 32.8% after a win, 55.9% after a draw, 67.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.8%, 21.1 points lower than before the match.
For St. Louis City the question was the chance to finish top of the Western Conference, 25.5% going in: 35.8% after a win, 18.9% after a draw, 12.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.4%, 13.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Minnesota United FC v St. Louis City has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 31% / 24% / 45%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Minnesota United FC win31%▼ −2
- Draw24%▼ −2
- St. Louis City win45%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.