Orlando City SC vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Orlando City SC 4-1 DC United.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Orlando City SC, 22% draw, 26% DC United — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Orlando City SC at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando City SC vs DC United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 19Z. TaifiD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 57IagoD
- 77I. AnguloD
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 7A. GriezmannM
- 10M. OjedaM
- 9D. DikeF
- 22Justin EllisF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 21N. MillerD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 87Marco PasalicF
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 11TiagoF
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 13S. NealisD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 8J. StroudM
- 2K. NonoM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 23B. ServaniaF
- 12C. AntleyD
- 32O. AvilezF
- 26A. BonoG
- 40K. CastilloM
- 25J. HopkinsM
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 22N. OrdazF
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 48Gavin TurnerM
Form going into Orlando City SC vs DC United
Orlando City SC
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Toronto FC14 October 2026
- W3-2Columbus Crew10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
DC United
All competitions we cover
- W2-1New York Red Bulls14 October 2026
- L0-4away to Inter Miami10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- DC United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for DC United had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 63 | 78 | -15 | 46 |
| 14 | DC United | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs DC United
- 25 April 2026DC United 3–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 13 September 2025DC United 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 22 March 2025Orlando City SC 4–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2024Orlando City SC 5–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2024DC United 2–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 22 April 2023Orlando City SC 1–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and DC United
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Orlando City SC beat DC United 4–1. The model had made a win for Orlando City SC its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Antoine Griezmann 15' for Orlando City SC, Martin Ojeda 22' for Orlando City SC, Tai Baribo (penalty) 45+2' for DC United, Antoine Griezmann 50' for Orlando City SC, Marco Pašalić 90+5' for Orlando City SC. On expected goals it finished 2.62–2.60.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orlando City SC a 1.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 4.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
For DC United the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.3% going in: 12.9% after a win, 27.6% after a draw, 38.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.4%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Orlando City SC v DC United has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 22% / 26%: the biggest move is Orlando City SC's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Orlando City SC win52%▲ +7
- Draw22%▼ −4
- DC United win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Orlando City SC's most recent league matches and DC United's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.