New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York City FC 1-1 Los Angeles FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% New York City FC, 30% draw, 34% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New York City FC at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 17H. WolfM
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 35M. IleničD
- 88M. JonesF
- 16A. MartínezF
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 9B. TraoréF
- 1H. LlorisG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 33A. LongD
- 91N. TafariD
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 6Igor JesusM
- 81L. WaltaM
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 18J. ShaffelburgM
- 99D. BouangaF
- 19T. BoydF
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 12T. HasalG
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 21R. RaposoM
- 4E. SeguraD
- 9A. SiebF
- 20S. VasquezM
Form going into New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Inter Miami14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer
- W3-1Austin15 October 2026
What these results say
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | New York City FC | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 42 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
- 8 February 2026Los Angeles FC 1–1 New York City FCFriendlies Clubs
- 2 March 2025Los Angeles FC 1–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 January 2023Los Angeles FC 1–1 New York City FCFriendlies Clubs
- 28 January 2023New York City FC 1–1 Los Angeles FCFriendlies Clubs
- 29 May 2021Los Angeles FC 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 17 March 2019New York City FC 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Los Angeles FC
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau166
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Leo Walta 45+1' for Los Angeles FC, Andrés Perea 59' for New York City FC. On expected goals it finished 0.78–0.58.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave New York City FC a 12.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.2% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 19.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 12.3%.
For Los Angeles FC the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 22.7% going in: 40.0% after a win, 17.7% after a draw, 11.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.7%, 5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.