Atlas vs Club Queretaro Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 1-3 Club Queretaro.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atlas, 26% draw, 34% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atlas at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Club Queretaro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12C. VargasG
- 44J. SanchezD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 21R. SchlegelD
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 6E. ZaldivarM
- 26A. RochaM
- 11DukM
- 58A. GonzalezM
- 10L. EstevesM
- 9F. MonzonF
- 22A. SanchezG
- 4A. MoraD
- 5J. RodriguezD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 3J. SanchezD
- 15P. RamirezD
- 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
- 192J. SerratoM
- 23S. HernandezM
- 25G. AllisonG
- 24B. DuarteD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 2L. AbasciaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4C. GarciaM
- 5S. HomenchenkoM
- 16E. GimenezM
- 11M. CoronelM
- 12Paulo VictorM
- 9A. AvilaF
- 1J. HernandezG
- 15C. Villanueva
- 29W. MadridM
- 18E. DuenasM
- 20A. AlcalaM
- 8B. ParraM
- 199S. GarciaM
- 26E. PerezF
- 7I. BenitoM
Form going into Atlas vs Club Queretaro
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
Club Queretaro
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
- W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca27 July 2026
- L0-1Club America19 July 2026
What these results say
- Atlas won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Club Queretaro
- 21 March 2026Atlas 0–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 17 August 2025Club Queretaro 3–3 AtlasLiga MX
- 17 April 2025Club Queretaro 1–2 AtlasLiga MX
- 21 September 2024Atlas 0–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 31 March 2024Atlas 2–3 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 31 August 2023Club Queretaro 1–2 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Club Queretaro
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- A. Ávila60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Queretaro won 3–1 at Atlas. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlas at 40% and given a win for Club Queretaro 34%. The goals: S. Homenchenko (penalty) 39' for Club Queretaro, C. Garcia (own goal) 42' for Atlas, S. Homenchenko 70' for Club Queretaro, C. Garcia 76' for Club Queretaro. Sent off: Manuel Capasso (Atlas) 51'. On expected goals it finished 1.11–1.50.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.