29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Monza vs Udinese Serie A prediction & result

Monza
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Monza 2-3 Udinese.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Monza, 26% draw, 26% Udinese — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Monza at 48% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Monza0%Draw5%Udinese95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽J. Piotrowskiassist: H. Kamara
⚽A. Colpaniassist: R. Mangas
37'
45'
⚽H. Kamara
45'
⚽J. Ekkelenkamp
Lorenzo Lucchesi
46'
🔁F. Ondoaout: M. Folorunsho
54'
🔁M. Moutout: E. Akinsanmiro
54'
60'
🔁J. Piotrowskiout: L. Miller
60'
🔁U. Gomezout: O. Zarraga
🔁L. Lucchesiout: F. Delli Carri
61'
⚽G. Varelaassist: E. Akinsanmiro
63'
68'
🔁E. Ebosseout: N. Bertola
68'
🔁K. Davisout: I. Gueye
🔁S. Birindelliout: O. Forson
84'
🔁A. Colpaniout: D. Mota
84'
85'
🔁M. Vojvodaout: J. Arizala

Match stats — Monza vs Udinese

51%Possession49%
14Shots12
5On target5
3Corners3
1.62xG0.89

Goals against chances

Monza2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
Udinese3 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Monza 3-4-2-1
  • 20D. ThiamG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 8F. Ondoa
  • 80M. MoutM
  • 7R. MangasM
  • 28A. ColpaniF
  • 10P. CutroneF
  • 9G. VarelaF
Substitutes
  • 43A. StrajnarG
  • 50A. BallabioG
  • 6V. AntovD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 24A. BakouneD
  • 5Y. MayeD
  • 90M. FolorunshoM
  • 21L. ColomboM
  • 14E. AkinsanmiroM
Coach: Ivan Juric
Udinese 3-4-2-1
  • 40M. OkoyeG
  • 14J. AbankwahD
  • 28O. SoletD
  • 77E. EbosseD
  • 23M. VojvodaM
  • 24J. PiotrowskiM
  • 8J. KarlstromM
  • 11H. KamaraM
  • 46U. GomezF
  • 32J. EkkelenkampF
  • 9K. DavisF
Substitutes
  • 93D. PadelliG
  • 99E. PianaG
  • 41B. MrozekG
  • 13N. BertolaD
  • 2S. GoglichidzeD
  • 4S. LovricM
  • 38L. MillerM
  • 79D. PejicicM
  • 6O. ZarragaM
Coach: Kosta Runjaic

Form going into Monza vs Udinese

Monza

  • L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026

Udinese

  • D1-1Como22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Monza4013611-51
13Udinese4112810-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Monza vs Udinese

  • 29 August 2026Monza 2–3 UdineseSerie A
  • 11 May 2025Udinese 1–2 MonzaSerie A
  • 9 December 2024Monza 1–2 UdineseSerie A
  • 3 February 2024Udinese 0–0 MonzaSerie A
  • 29 October 2023Monza 1–1 UdineseSerie A
  • 8 April 2023Udinese 2–2 MonzaSerie A

Leading scorers: Monza and Udinese

Monza

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Udinese

  • J. Ekkelenkamp2 goals1 assists
  • H. Kamara2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.