Monza vs Udinese Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Monza 2-3 Udinese.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Monza, 26% draw, 26% Udinese — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Monza at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monza vs Udinese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20D. ThiamG
- 60E. KouadioD
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 44A. CarboniD
- 19S. BirindelliM
- 8F. Ondoa
- 80M. MoutM
- 7R. MangasM
- 28A. ColpaniF
- 10P. CutroneF
- 9G. VarelaF
- 43A. StrajnarG
- 50A. BallabioG
- 6V. AntovD
- 15F. Delli CarriD
- 24A. BakouneD
- 5Y. MayeD
- 90M. FolorunshoM
- 21L. ColomboM
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 40M. OkoyeG
- 14J. AbankwahD
- 28O. SoletD
- 77E. EbosseD
- 23M. VojvodaM
- 24J. PiotrowskiM
- 8J. KarlstromM
- 11H. KamaraM
- 46U. GomezF
- 32J. EkkelenkampF
- 9K. DavisF
- 93D. PadelliG
- 99E. PianaG
- 41B. MrozekG
- 13N. BertolaD
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 4S. LovricM
- 38L. MillerM
- 79D. PejicicM
- 6O. ZarragaM
Form going into Monza vs Udinese
Monza
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026
Udinese
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Como22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monza vs Udinese
- 11 May 2025Udinese 1–2 MonzaSerie A
- 9 December 2024Monza 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 3 February 2024Udinese 0–0 MonzaSerie A
- 29 October 2023Monza 1–1 UdineseSerie A
- 8 April 2023Udinese 2–2 MonzaSerie A
Leading scorers: Monza and Udinese
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela91
Udinese
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Udinese won 3–2 at Monza. The model had leaned towards a win for Monza at 48% and given a win for Udinese 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Piotrowski 32' for Udinese, A. Colpani 37' for Monza, H. Kamara 45' for Udinese, J. Ekkelenkamp 45' for Udinese, G. Varela 63' for Monza. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.89.