29 August 2026, 01:00 UTC

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Necaxa, 23% draw, 24% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Necaxa at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Necaxa0%Draw1%Cruz Azul99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽J. Marquezassist: C. Rodriguez
🔁C. Vargasout: M. Zaleta
32'
Danny Leyva
43'
🔁Navesout: R. Martinez
46'
🔁M. Espindolaout: J. P. Torres Patino
46'
46'
⚽N. Ibanezassist: C. Rodriguez
53'
⚽W. Dittaassist: J. Paradela
54'
Willer Ditta
59'
Amaury Garcia
🔁L. Faravelliout: P. Pedraza
61'
🔁O. Gonzalezout: E. Rodriguez
61'
Javier Ruiz
67'
73'
🔁R. Gonzalezout: J. Rodarte
73'
🔁N. Ibanezout: G. Fernandez
73'
🔁J. Marquezout: L. Romero
🔁D. Leyvaout: R. Cortez
78'
⚽E. Rodriguezassist: P. Pedraza
83'
Emilio Rodriguez
84'
84'
🔁A. Garciaout: A. Montes
84'
🔁J. Paradelaout: C. Ebere
86'
🔁O. Camposout: J. Diaz
Juan Torres
90+4'
Pedro Pedraza
90+4'

Match stats — Necaxa vs Cruz Azul

46%Possession54%
13Shots22
4On target8
7Corners7
0.44xG1.91

Goals against chances

Necaxa1 from 0.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cruz Azul3 from 1.91 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Necaxa 3-5-2
  • 12L. JimenezG
  • 5NavesD
  • 4A. PenaD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 13O. GonzalezM
  • 21M. EspindolaM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 88C. VargasM
  • 9J. CarranzaF
  • 10J. RuizF
Substitutes
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 33R. MartinezD
  • 15D. OchoaD
  • 14M. ZaletaM
  • 20F. MendezD
  • 11J. P. Torres PatinoM
  • 17R. CortezM
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 90J. ValenciaF
Coach: Martin Varini
Cruz Azul 5-4-1
  • 23K. MierG
  • 55R. GonzalezD
  • 4W. DittaD
  • 17A. GarciaD
  • 5J. OrozcoD
  • 3O. CamposD
  • 20J. ParadelaM
  • 8A. PalavecinoM
  • 16J. MarquezM
  • 19C. RodriguezM
  • 7N. IbanezF
Substitutes
  • 1A. GudinoG
  • 49J. Diaz
  • 12A. MontesD
  • 22J. RodarteD
  • 10A. MontanoM
  • 70I. Silva
  • 27B. GamboaF
  • 21G. FernandezF
  • 11C. EbereF
Coach: Joel Huiqui

Form going into Necaxa vs Cruz Azul

Necaxa

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
  • L1-2Leon18 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
  • W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
  • W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026

Cruz Azul

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
  • L2-3Atlante FC2 August 2026
  • W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
  • W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026

What these results say

  • Necaxa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Necaxa.
  • Cruz Azul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Cruz Azul had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Necaxa163491728-1113
1Cruz Azul1610243726+1132

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Cruz Azul

  • 27 April 2026Cruz Azul 4–1 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 22 October 2025Necaxa 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
  • 29 January 2025Necaxa 1–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
  • 5 October 2024Cruz Azul 3–0 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 16 March 2024Cruz Azul 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 5 October 2023Necaxa 1–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX

The full Necaxa vs Cruz Azul record →

Leading scorers: Necaxa and Cruz Azul

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

Cruz Azul

GoalsAssists

  • A. Montaño65
  • N. Ibáñez63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cruz Azul won 3–1 at Necaxa. The model had leaned towards a win for Necaxa at 53% and given a win for Cruz Azul 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Marquez 23' for Cruz Azul, N. Ibanez 46' for Cruz Azul, W. Ditta 53' for Cruz Azul, E. Rodriguez 83' for Necaxa. On expected goals it finished 0.44–1.91.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.