Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Necaxa, 23% draw, 24% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Necaxa at 53% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
Necaxa
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
- L1-2Leon18 August 2026
Cruz Azul
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
- 27 April 2026Cruz Azul 4–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 22 October 2025Necaxa 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 29 January 2025Necaxa 1–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 5 October 2024Cruz Azul 3–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 16 March 2024Cruz Azul 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 5 October 2023Necaxa 1–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Necaxa and Cruz Azul
Necaxa
- J. Carranza4 goals1 assists
Cruz Azul
- J. Márquez3 goals1 assists
- N. Ibáñez3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.