29 August 2026, 23:00 UTC

CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Full time1 – 1

Final score: CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% CF Pachuca, 26% draw, 41% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Guadalajara Chivas at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Pachuca4%Draw92%Guadalajara Chivas4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽R. Alvaradoassist: H. Camberos
Oussama Idrissi
25'
Francisco Venegas
32'
51'
🔁E. Alvarezout: B. Gutierrez
Carlos Sánchez
53'
🔁A. Bautistaout: R. Pizarro
57'
59'
🔁S. Sandovalout: R. Ledezma
59'
🔁H. Camberosout: J. Carrillo
🔁E. Montielout: A. Arroyo
65'
🔁O. Idrissiout: N. Vallejo
65'
•Nicolás Vallejo
74'
⚽S. Rondon (pen)
79'
84'
🔁O. Goveaout: K. Castaneda
84'
🔁R. Marinout: A. Sepulveda
🔁Kenedyout: A. Alcaraz
87'
Andrés Arroyo
90'

Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

43%Possession57%
17Shots12
7On target5
8Corners7
1.51xG1.51

Goals against chances

CF Pachuca1 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth
Guadalajara Chivas1 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Pachuca 4-3-3
  • 25C. MorenoG
  • 14C. SanchezD
  • 13J. BerlangaD
  • 2S. D. BarretoD
  • 15F. VenegasD
  • 10E. MontielM
  • 16C. RiveraM
  • 26A. BautistaM
  • 29KenedyF
  • 23S. RondonF
  • 11O. IdrissiF
Substitutes
  • 31J. EulogioG
  • 6M. IsaisD
  • 206T. A. ContrerasM
  • 28A. ArroyoM
  • 187G. AlvarezF
  • 32P. BudibD
  • 7R. PizarroM
  • 30S. RodriguezM
  • 9A. AlcarazM
Coach: Benjamin Mora
Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. RangelG
  • 24M. GomezD
  • 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
  • 7L. RomoD
  • 30S. SandovalM
  • 6O. GoveaM
  • 28F. GonzalezM
  • 14H. CamberosM
  • 25R. AlvaradoF
  • 10E. AlvarezF
  • 17R. MarinF
Substitutes
  • 13O. WhalleyG
  • 37R. LedezmaD
  • 19K. CastanedaM
  • 59S. IndaM
  • 11B. GutierrezM
  • 16L. ReyD
  • 9A. SepulvedaF
  • 33J. CarrilloM
  • 18J. PerezM
Coach: Gabriel Milito

Form going into CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
  • L2-3Puebla18 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Leon2 August 2026
  • L1-2Club Queretaro27 July 2026
  • W3-0away to Pumas UNAM18 July 2026

Guadalajara Chivas

All competitions we cover

  • W5-2Club Tijuana22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Puebla1 August 2026
  • W1-0FC Juarez25 July 2026
  • L0-2Toluca19 July 2026

What these results say

  • CF Pachuca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CF Pachuca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Guadalajara Chivas had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9CF Pachuca166462920+922
3Guadalajara Chivas168622615+1130

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas

  • 10 January 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 3 November 2025CF Pachuca 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 23 February 2025Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 19 October 2024CF Pachuca 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 13 April 2024CF Pachuca 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 24 September 2023Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 CF PachucaLiga MX

The full CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas record →

Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas

CF Pachuca

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rondón162

Guadalajara Chivas

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Guadalajara Chivas at 41% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Alvarado 3' for Guadalajara Chivas, S. Rondon (penalty) 79' for CF Pachuca. On expected goals it finished 1.51–1.51.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.