CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% CF Pachuca, 26% draw, 41% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas
CF Pachuca
- D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
- L2-3Puebla18 August 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
- W5-2Club Tijuana22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | CF Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 11 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 10 January 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 3 November 2025CF Pachuca 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 23 February 2025Guadalajara Chivas 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 19 October 2024CF Pachuca 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 13 April 2024CF Pachuca 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 24 September 2023Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas
CF Pachuca
- S. Rondón8 goals
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.