Atlante FC vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlante FC 1-2 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Atlante FC, 27% draw, 36% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atlante FC at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlante FC vs Pumas UNAM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ó. JiménezG
- 29Walter PortalesD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirozD
- 34E. JiménezD
- 30M. SarrafioreM
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 19L. CalzadillaM
- 9L. PuenteF
- 7J. JulioF
- 10O. VazquezM
- 15Jairón Andrés Charcopa CabezasF
- 18C. BermúdezM
- 22R. BarraganG
- 32D. BagüíD
- 37W. ClarD
- 25M. FernándezM
- 16José GonzálezM
- 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LópezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 22A. MedinaM
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 21U. AntunaM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 23JuninhoF
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 34Á. AzuajeD
- 202Julio Cesar Dominguez CastillejosD
- 14L. HerreraF
- 35P. LaraG
- 24T. LeoneD
- 15I. LunaM
- 30Santiago López LópezF
- 19J. RivasD
Form going into Atlante FC vs Pumas UNAM
Atlante FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Club Queretaro10 October 2026
- W4-2Monterrey26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla19 September 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Cruz Azul12 October 2026
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlante FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and Pumas UNAM
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pumas UNAM won 2–1 at Atlante FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlante FC at 37% and given a win for Pumas UNAM 36%. The goals: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior 42' for Pumas UNAM, Luis Calzadilla 45+1' for Atlante FC, Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnior 72' for Pumas UNAM. Sent off: Miguel Ernesto Herrera Aguirre (Atlante FC) 34'. On expected goals it finished 1.04–1.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlante FC a 41.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.6% after a win, 43.1% after a draw, 56.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.9%, 15.7 points higher than before the match.
For Pumas UNAM the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.1% after a win, 9.1% after a draw, 16.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 2.1%.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atlante FC v Pumas UNAM has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Pumas UNAM's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Atlante FC win37%=
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Pumas UNAM win36%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.