Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Tigres UANL.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Guadalajara Chivas, 26% draw, 24% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Guadalajara Chivas at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. RangelG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 16L. ReyD
- 3D. CampilloD
- 25R. AlvaradoM
- 28R. GonzálezM
- 11B. GutiérrezM
- 182L. CalderonM
- 30Santiago SandovalM
- 10E. ÁlvarezM
- 9Á. SepúlvedaF
- 37R. LedezmaD
- 14H. CamberosM
- 13Óscar WhalleyG
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 56Á. ChávezD
- 5B. GonzálezD
- 57J. HernándezF
- 46C. HernandezD
- 59C. IndaM
- 1N. GuzmánG
- 15A. FrancoD
- 28JoaquimD
- 33R. GuerreroD
- 19M. LaínezD
- 5C. AraújoM
- 8F. GorriaránM
- 30D. SánchezM
- 16D. LainezM
- 17R. AguirreM
- 11J. BrunettaF
- 29J. ContrerasF
- 14J. GarzaD
- 9E. GómezF
- 77O. HerreraF
- 32V. LoroñaD
- 22G. MartínezF
- 21R. MonrealF
- 25F. RodríguezG
- 34SimeoneM
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Atlas11 October 2026
- L0-2Club Queretaro26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Club America20 September 2026
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
Tigres UANL
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Toluca10 October 2026
- W1-0Puebla27 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
- D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
What these results say
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
- 10 May 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 3 May 2026Tigres UANL 3–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 11 April 2026Tigres UANL 4–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 18 September 2025Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 26 January 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 25 August 2024Tigres UANL 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta94
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Guadalajara Chivas at 50% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Juan Brunetta 36' for Tigres UANL, Jordan Carrillo 77' for Guadalajara Chivas. Sent off: Juan Brunetta (Tigres UANL) 45+2'. On expected goals it finished 1.68–0.48.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Guadalajara Chivas a 72.0% chance to finish in the top four: 83.4% after a win, 65.6% after a draw, 53.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 65.6%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.
For Tigres UANL the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.2% going in: 2.2% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.4%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Guadalajara Chivas v Tigres UANL has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Guadalajara Chivas's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Guadalajara Chivas win50%▲ +4
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Tigres UANL win24%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.