Club Tijuana vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Tijuana 0-0 Puebla.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Club Tijuana, 27% draw, 22% Puebla — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Club Tijuana at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Puebla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 2A. RodríguezG
- 3R. FernándezD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 6A. GómezD
- 16J. VegaD
- 8I. TonaM
- 17R. ÁrcigaM
- 11F. GonzálezM
- 15I. RiveroM
- 7Adonis PreciadoM
- 9MouradF
- 20Á. ZapataM
- 34F. BoyaM
- 4Unai BilbaoD
- 13Elias ManoelF
- 19D. AbreuF
- 202J. GonzálezF
- 29S. HernándezG
- 18A. MejíaD
- 33P. OrtízD
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 12I. MorenoD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 16A. RamírezM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 8O. MorenoM
- 9L. HernándezF
- 3A. HerreraM
- 25H. JuradoF
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 29E. MustreF
- 20J. PachucaD
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 15Ó. VillaD
- 195Alvaro BurgosD
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Puebla
Club Tijuana
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to FC Juarez10 October 2026
- L2-3Atlas26 September 2026
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Leon10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tigres UANL27 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Tijuana failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
- Puebla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Puebla
- 7 February 2026Club Tijuana 0–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 18 October 2025Puebla 4–3 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 22 February 2025Puebla 2–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 11 November 2024Club Tijuana 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 20 April 2024Club Tijuana 3–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 2 September 2023Puebla 3–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
The result against the call
Club Tijuana and Puebla drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Tijuana at 51% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.22–0.42.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Tijuana a 15.1% chance to finish in the top four: 20.4% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 4.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.3%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
For Puebla the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.6% going in: 1.1% after a win, 5.3% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.3%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club Tijuana v Puebla has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Club Tijuana's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Club Tijuana win51%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Puebla win22%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Club Tijuana's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Puebla's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.