17 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Necaxa vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Referee: Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Necaxa 0-2 Atlas.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Necaxa, 26% draw, 34% Atlas — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Necaxa at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Necaxa0%Draw6%Atlas94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Ryan Mmaeeassist: Florián Monzón
5'
•Florián Monzón
🔁Matias Espindolaout: Javier Ruiz
64'
67'
•Elías Montiel
67'
Milton Valenzuela
70'
🔁Ryan Mmaeeout: Jorge Rodríguez
🔁Pedro Pedrazaout: Juan Valencia
74'
🔁Emilio Martínezout: Leonardo Abimael Becerra Ramos
74'
76'
🔁Luís André Leite Estevesout: Edgar Zaldívar
76'
🔁Kevin Zenonout: Manuel Capasso
77'
Adonis Frías
🔁Carlos Vargasout: Miguel Pedroza
81'
🔁Owen Gonzálezout: Rogelio Cortéz
82'
85'
🔁Jorge Sánchezout: Gaddi Aguirre
90'
⚽Manuel Capasso
Diego Ochoa
90+3'

Match stats — Necaxa vs Atlas

49%Possession51%
20Shots14
3On target5
10Corners6
1.85xG2.19

Goals against chances

Necaxa0 from 1.85 xGless than the chances were worth
Atlas2 from 2.19 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Necaxa 4-1-4-1
  • 181Javier OrantesG
  • 2E. MartínezD
  • 15D. OchoaD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 88C. VargasD
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 99M. RodríguezM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 21M. EspíndolaM
  • 13Owen de Jesús González OjedaM
  • 9J. CarranzaF
Substitutes
  • 10J. RuizM
  • 27M. PedrozaF
  • 33R. MartínezD
  • 5Kaiky NavesD
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 17R. CortézM
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 90J. ValenciaF
  • 208Leonardo Abimael Becerra RamosM
Coach: Juan Reynoso
Atlas 4-2-2-2
  • 12C. VargasG
  • 3J. SánchezD
  • 19A. FríasD
  • 44J. PurataD
  • 16M. ValenzuelaD
  • 18E. MontielM
  • 15Paulo RamírezM
  • 20K. ZenónM
  • 10Luís EstevesM
  • 9F. MonzónF
  • 8R. MmaeeF
Substitutes
  • 23S. HernándezM
  • 58A. GonzálezF
  • 28M. CapassoD
  • 13G. AguirreD
  • 27V. RíosM
  • 203J. MartínF
  • 26A. RochaM
  • 5J. RodríguezD
  • 22A. SánchezG
Coach: H. Crespo

Form going into Necaxa vs Atlas

Necaxa

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to CF Pachuca11 October 2026
  • L2-4Club America28 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Atletico San Luis19 September 2026
  • L0-1Puebla12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026

Atlas

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Guadalajara Chivas11 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Club Tijuana26 September 2026
  • D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
  • L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
  • D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atlas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Atlas.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Necaxa163491728-1113
5Atlas168352730-327

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Atlas

  • 4 July 2026Atlas 0–0 NecaxaFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 January 2026Necaxa 0–1 AtlasLiga MX
  • 30 December 2025Atlas 5–3 NecaxaFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 September 2025Atlas 3–2 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 19 February 2025Atlas 0–4 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 23 December 2024Atlas 1–2 NecaxaFriendlies Clubs

The full Necaxa vs Atlas record →

Leading scorers: Necaxa and Atlas

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

Atlas

GoalsAssists

  • F. Monzón51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atlas won 2–0 at Necaxa. The model had leaned towards a win for Necaxa at 40% and given a win for Atlas 34%. The goals: Ryan Mmaee 5' for Atlas, Manuel Capasso 90' for Atlas. Sent off: Milton Valenzuela (Atlas) 67'. On expected goals it finished 1.85–2.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Necaxa a 69.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 54.9% after a win, 75.9% after a draw, 84.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.4%, 14.7 points higher than before the match.

For Atlas the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 22.6% going in: 36.0% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.0%, 13.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Necaxa v Atlas has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Necaxa's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Necaxa win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Atlas win34%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.