Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlante FC 0-2 Santos Laguna.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Atlante FC, 28% draw, 35% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atlante FC at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ó. JiménezG
- 29Walter PortalesD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 44A. QuirozD
- 3G. SánchezD
- 37W. ClarD
- 30M. SarrafioreM
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 19L. CalzadillaM
- 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
- 7J. JulioF
- 15Jairón Andrés Charcopa CabezasF
- 32D. BagüíD
- 14C. AlfaroD
- 20G. AdameM
- 25M. FernándezM
- 33Jordan GarcíaG
- 13M. GarcíaM
- 16José GonzálezM
- 9L. PuenteF
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 28Jonathan PérezD
- 17E. EcheverrÃaD
- 19E. AguirreM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 10E. BullaudeM
- 20E. LozanoF
- 4J. AbellaD
- 9L. Di YorioF
- 193Luis GómezM
- 6J. GüémezM
- 33H. HolguínG
- 29Tahiel Adrián Jiménez SánchezF
- 5A. LópezM
- 8S. MariscalM
- 77K. PalaciosM
Form going into Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna
Atlante FC
Liga MX
- L2-4away to Guadalajara Chivas1 November 2026
- L0-1Atletico San Luis24 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Juarez21 October 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM17 October 2026
Santos Laguna
Liga MX
- W1-0Necaxa1 November 2026
- L1-4away to Club Tijuana26 October 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM22 October 2026
- W5-0Club Queretaro17 October 2026
What these results say
- Atlante FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atlante FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santos Laguna scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Santos Laguna won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santos Laguna kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna
- 19 December 2025Santos Laguna 0–3 Atlante FCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and Santos Laguna
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos Laguna won 2–0 at Atlante FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlante FC at 37% and given a win for Santos Laguna 35%. The goals: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez 67' for Santos Laguna, Esteban Lozano 77' for Santos Laguna. Sent off: Aarón Quirós (Atlante FC) 15', Walter Portales (Atlante FC) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.66–0.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlante FC a 61.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 31.3% after a win, 70.3% after a draw, 87.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.2%, 25.3 points higher than before the match.
For Santos Laguna the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 65.0% going in: 92.3% after a win, 63.7% after a draw, 38.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.3%, 27.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atlante FC v Santos Laguna has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Atlante FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Atlante FC win37%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Santos Laguna win35%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.