7 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Atlas vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Referee: Fernando Hernandez Gomez
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Atlas 1-4 CF Pachuca.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Atlas, 27% draw, 36% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atlas at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Manuel Capasso (OG)
7'
Alan Bautista
12'
⚽Oussama Idrissiassist: Salomón Rondón
Aldo Rocha
18'
🔁Milton Valenzuelaout: Ryan Mmaee
45'
🔁Aldo Rochaout: José Lozano
45'
⚽Manuel Capasso
51'
61'
🔁Alan Bautistaout: Robert Nunes
61'
🔁Javier Vallejoout: Sebastian Santos
71'
🔁Oussama Idrissiout: Mauricio Isais
Luís André Leite Esteves
74'
75'
⚽Salomón Rondón (pen)
Ryan Mmaee
77'
•Adonis Frías
82'
Adonis Frías
83'
🔁Florián Monzónout: José Martín
83'
85'
🔁Salomón Rondónout: Adrián Alcaraz
85'
🔁Rodolfo Pizarroout: Cristóbal Hernández
90+2'
⚽Eduardo Dos Santosassist: Robert Nunes

Match stats — Atlas vs CF Pachuca

66%Possession34%
11Shots15
6On target8
7Corners5
1.26xG1.91

Goals against chances

Atlas1 from 1.26 xGabout what the chances were worth
CF Pachuca4 from 1.91 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atlas 3-4-2-1
  • 12C. VargasG
  • 19A. FríasD
  • 28M. CapassoD
  • 44J. PurataD
  • 23S. HernándezM
  • 26A. RochaM
  • 18E. MontielM
  • 16M. ValenzuelaM
  • 20K. ZenónM
  • 10Luís EstevesM
  • 9F. MonzónF
Substitutes
  • 13G. AguirreD
  • 17J. LozanoD
  • 27V. RíosM
  • 203J. MartínF
  • 8R. MmaeeF
  • 4A. MoraD
  • 5J. RodríguezD
  • 192Jesús SerratoM
  • 22A. SánchezG
Coach: H. Crespo
CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
  • 25C. MorenoG
  • 13J. BerlangaD
  • 4Eduardo BauermannD
  • 2S. BarretoD
  • 15F. VenegasD
  • 16C. RiveraM
  • 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
  • 21N. VallejoM
  • 7R. PizarroM
  • 11O. IdrissiM
  • 23S. RondónF
Substitutes
  • 28A. ArroyoM
  • 32P. BudibD
  • 206Thomas ContrerasM
  • 31J. EulogioG
  • 211C. HernandezF
  • 6M. IsaísD
  • 29KenedyM
  • 12S. SantosM
  • 207Ian Josué Zavala OsorioF
Coach: B. Mora

Form going into Atlas vs CF Pachuca

Atlas

Liga MX

  • W1-0away to Atletico San Luis31 October 2026
  • W4-3Puebla25 October 2026
  • L2-5Club America22 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Necaxa17 October 2026

CF Pachuca

Liga MX

  • W3-0Tigres UANL31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Club America26 October 2026
  • L1-2Cruz Azul22 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Monterrey19 October 2026

What these results say

  • Atlas scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Atlas won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • CF Pachuca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for CF Pachuca had three goals or more.
  • CF Pachuca conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Atlas168352730-327
9CF Pachuca166462920+922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atlas vs CF Pachuca

  • 14 February 2026CF Pachuca 3–1 AtlasLiga MX
  • 10 August 2025Atlas 0–3 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 2 February 2025CF Pachuca 0–0 AtlasLiga MX
  • 14 September 2024Atlas 2–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 1 February 2024CF Pachuca 4–3 AtlasLiga MX
  • 2 November 2023Atlas 0–2 CF PachucaLiga MX

The full Atlas vs CF Pachuca record →

Leading scorers: Atlas and CF Pachuca

Atlas

GoalsAssists

  • F. Monzón51

CF Pachuca

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rondón162

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CF Pachuca won 4–1 at Atlas. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlas at 37% and given a win for CF Pachuca 36%. The goals: Manuel Capasso (own goal) 5' for CF Pachuca, Oussama Idrissi 12' for CF Pachuca, Manuel Capasso 51' for Atlas, Salomón Rondón (penalty) 75' for CF Pachuca, Eduardo Dos Santos 90+2' for CF Pachuca. Sent off: Adonis Frías (Atlas) 83'. On expected goals it finished 1.26–1.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlas a 4.0% chance to finish top of the Apertura: 9.7% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 4 points lower than before the match.

For CF Pachuca the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 17.2% going in: 41.9% after a win, 2.5% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.9%, 24.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atlas v CF Pachuca has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Atlas's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Atlas win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. CF Pachuca win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.