7 November 2026, 01:00 UTC

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Referee: Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Necaxa 1-0 Club Tijuana.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Necaxa, 27% draw, 43% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Club Tijuana at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Necaxa95%Draw5%Club Tijuana0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Danny Leyvaassist: Lorenzo Faravelli
12'
34'
Rafael Fernández
🔁Julián Carranzaout: Juan Valencia
45'
45'
🔁Mourad El Ghezouaniout: Elias Manoel
45'
🔁Pablo Ortízout: Unai Bilbao
Raúl Martínez
53'
🔁Lorenzo Faravelliout: Joshua Alejandro Palacios Pulido
65'
70'
🔁Gilberto Moraout: Yael Padilla
🔁Raúl Martínezout: Leroy Davis
77'
🔁Owen Gonzálezout: Alexis Peña
77'
78'
🔁Francisco Gonzálezout: Diego Abreu
78'
🔁José Riveroout: Ramiro Árciga
🔁Diego Ochoaout: Pedro Pedraza
90+1'
90+3'
Ivan Tona

Match stats — Necaxa vs Club Tijuana

42%Possession58%
16Shots18
5On target3
5Corners6
1.32xG1.75

Goals against chances

Necaxa1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth
Club Tijuana0 from 1.75 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Necaxa 4-1-4-1
  • 181Javier OrantesG
  • 33R. MartínezD
  • 5Kaiky NavesD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 14M. ZaletaD
  • 15D. OchoaM
  • 99M. RodríguezM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 13Owen de Jesús González OjedaM
  • 9J. CarranzaF
Substitutes
  • 21M. EspíndolaM
  • 210Joshua Alejandro Palacios PulidoM
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 4A. PeñaD
  • 11J. TorresM
  • 90J. ValenciaF
  • 235Leroy DavisD
  • 259Leonardo Arvizo VargasF
  • 1C. AndradeG
Coach: Juan Reynoso
Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1
  • 2A. RodríguezG
  • 3R. FernándezD
  • 12J. PorozoD
  • 6A. GómezD
  • 33P. OrtízD
  • 8I. TonaM
  • 11F. GonzálezM
  • 15I. RiveroM
  • 10G. MoraM
  • 7Adonis PreciadoM
  • 9MouradF
Substitutes
  • 19D. AbreuF
  • 13Elias ManoelF
  • 4Unai BilbaoD
  • 34F. BoyaM
  • 202J. GonzálezF
  • 29S. HernándezG
  • 31Y. PadillaF
  • 16J. VegaD
  • 20Á. ZapataM
Coach: S. Abreu

Form going into Necaxa vs Club Tijuana

Necaxa

Liga MX

  • L0-1away to Santos Laguna1 November 2026
  • D1-1FC Juarez24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas21 October 2026
  • L0-2Atlas17 October 2026

Club Tijuana

Liga MX

  • D3-3away to Monterrey1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Club America29 October 2026
  • W4-1Santos Laguna26 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Toluca22 October 2026

What these results say

  • Necaxa did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Necaxa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Necaxa had two goals or fewer.
  • Club Tijuana went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Club Tijuana scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Club Tijuana conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Necaxa163491728-1113
10Club Tijuana165742522+322

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Club Tijuana

  • 21 March 2026Necaxa 3–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 1 September 2025Club Tijuana 3–0 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 5 April 2025Club Tijuana 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 19 October 2024Necaxa 1–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 6 April 2024Club Tijuana 2–3 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 6 January 2024Necaxa 1–3 Club TijuanaFriendlies Clubs

The full Necaxa vs Club Tijuana record →

Leading scorers: Necaxa and Club Tijuana

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

Club Tijuana

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Necaxa beat Club Tijuana 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Tijuana at 43% and given a win for Necaxa 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Danny Leyva 12' for Necaxa. On expected goals it finished 1.32–1.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Necaxa a 98.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 95.4% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.4%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

For Club Tijuana the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 80.5% going in: 97.4% after a win, 77.9% after a draw, 58.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.3%, 22.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Necaxa v Club Tijuana has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 33% / 28% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 27% / 43%: the biggest move is Club Tijuana's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Necaxa win30%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Club Tijuana win43%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.