Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atletico San Luis 0-1 FC Juarez.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Atletico San Luis, 24% draw, 21% FC Juarez — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico San Luis at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. LajudG
- 3Robson BambuD
- 31E. ÁguilaD
- 18A. CruzD
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 21Ó. MacíasM
- 10S. Salles-LamongeM
- 17A. DuarteM
- 11D. RodríguezM
- 22Rafa LlorenteM
- 99F. MoraF
- 2R. TorresD
- 30B. GalindoD
- 20L. FloresF
- 13J. CaicedoM
- 5R. MerazM
- 19S. MuñózF
- 8L. NájeraM
- 26S. Pérez BouquetM
- 6JuanpeD
- 1S. JuradoG
- 33F. NevárezD
- 2G. SepúlvedaD
- 26D. PiñaD
- 14E. LópezD
- 5D. GarcíaM
- 13Rodrigo DouradoM
- 9MadsonM
- 183L. SilvaM
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 19Ó. EstupiñánF
- 7R. FulgencioM
- 17L. Martínez DupuyF
- 198Ricardo Juárez MendozaD
- 3J. MurilloD
- 21RicardinhoM
- 11J. RodríguezM
- 6MonchuM
- 27Guillermo RuizG
- 10J. TorresF
Form going into Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX
- L0-1Atlas31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Atlante FC24 October 2026
- W2-1Club Queretaro21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Toluca18 October 2026
FC Juarez
Liga MX
- W3-1Club Queretaro31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Necaxa24 October 2026
- L0-1Atlante FC21 October 2026
- L0-5away to Cruz Azul18 October 2026
What these results say
- Atletico San Luis scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico San Luis conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico San Luis had two goals or fewer.
- FC Juarez conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Juarez failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez
- 26 April 2026FC Juarez 2–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 1 November 2025Atletico San Luis 1–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 8 March 2025Atletico San Luis 1–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 28 October 2024FC Juarez 2–4 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 8 April 2024Atletico San Luis 2–3 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 26 October 2023FC Juarez 3–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and FC Juarez
Atletico San Luis
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Juarez won 1–0 at Atletico San Luis. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico San Luis at 55% and given a win for FC Juarez 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Oscar Estupiñan (penalty) 85' for FC Juarez. On expected goals it finished 1.01–1.48.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico San Luis a 10.1% chance to finish in the top eight: 16.2% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 10.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico San Luis v FC Juarez has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 60% / 22% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Atletico San Luis's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Atletico San Luis win55%▼ −5
- Draw24%▲ +2
- FC Juarez win21%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.