Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 0-2 Bayern München.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Atletico Madrid, 24% draw, 39% Bayern München — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bayern München at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. OblakG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 14Marcos LlorenteM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 9A. SørlothF
- 19J. ÁlvarezF
- 46J. CastilloM
- 15J. DavidF
- 27J. DominguezD
- 26R. HuesoD
- 6KokeM
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 11A. LookmanF
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 1J. MussoG
- 1M. NeuerG
- 27K. LaimerD
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 4J. TahD
- 44J. StanišićD
- 6J. KimmichM
- 8T. BischofM
- 17M. OliseM
- 42L. KarlM
- 19A. DaviesM
- 9H. KaneF
- 40J. UrbigG
- 26S. UlreichG
- 45A. PavlovićM
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 21H. ItoD
- 47David DaiberM
- 11N. BrownD
- 23S. BoeyD
- 46T. BinderF
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
Atletico Madrid
UEFA Champions League
- D1-1away to VfB Stuttgart20 October 2026
- W2-0Manchester United13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
Bayern München
UEFA Champions League
- D2-2Arsenal21 October 2026
- D3-3away to Viking13 October 2026
- W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
- 1 December 2020Atletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- 21 October 2020Bayern Munich 4–0 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 6 December 2016Bayern Munich 1–0 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 28 September 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- 3 May 2016Bayern Munich 2–1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 27 April 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Bayern München
Atletico Madrid
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayern München won 2–0 at Atletico Madrid. The model had made a win for Bayern München its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lennart Karl 54' for Bayern München, Konrad Laimer 74' for Bayern München. On expected goals it finished 0.87–1.79.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.