Barcelona vs Aston Villa UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Barcelona 3-0 Aston Villa.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Barcelona, 22% draw, 26% Aston Villa — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Joan GarcíaG
- 4B. FarinasD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 18Gerard MartínD
- 2João CanceloD
- 16RodriM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalM
- 7FermínM
- 17A. GordonM
- 11RaphinhaF
- 14K. AdeyemiF
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 41A. CamposD
- 32O. GorenM
- 25D. LivakovićG
- 6GaviM
- 29H. AbdelkarimF
- 13W. SzczęsnyG
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 35João GomesM
- 8B. KamaraM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 47Alysson EdwardF
- 42J. WrightG
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 40M. BizotG
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 4T. Harwood-BellisD
- 53George HemmingsM
- 19I. MbayeF
Form going into Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Barcelona
UEFA Champions League
- L2-4away to Paris Saint Germain20 October 2026
- W4-1away to Galatasaray13 October 2026
- W5-1Feyenoord9 September 2026
Aston Villa
UEFA Champions League
- W3-1Viking21 October 2026
- W6-0Fenerbahçe14 October 2026
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Barcelona | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Barcelona and Aston Villa
Barcelona
GoalsAssists
- Raphinha40
- Lamine Yamal34
Aston Villa
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barcelona beat Aston Villa 3–0. The model had made a win for Barcelona its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lamine Yamal 7' for Barcelona, Raphael Dias Belloli 52' for Barcelona, Raphael Dias Belloli 64' for Barcelona. On expected goals it finished 2.05–0.77.
How the call on Barcelona v Aston Villa has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 69% / 17% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 52% / 22% / 26%: the biggest move is Barcelona's chance of winning, down 17 points.
- Barcelona win52%▼ −17
- Draw22%▲ +5
- Aston Villa win26%▲ +12
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.