3 November 2026, 22:30 UTC

Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Arsenio Erico
Referee: Derlis Lopez
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Nacional Asuncion 0-2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo.

Before kick-off the model made it 74% Nacional Asuncion, 18% draw, 8% Club Sp. San Lorenzo — fair odds of 1.35, 5.56 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nacional Asuncion at 74%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nacional Asuncion0%Draw1%Club Sp. San Lorenzo99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
I Fretes
23'
⚽Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón
45+1'
Lucas Andres Cohener Gonzalez
🔁Jordan·Santacruzout: Hugo Valdez
45'
🔁Francisco Pumpidoout: Richard·Prieto
45'
45'
🔁Franco Aragónout: Ángel Benítez
50'
Luis Cáceres
52'
Pablo Fornasari
🔁Orlando Gaona Lugoout: Ignacio Bailone
61'
🔁Fabrizio Jaraout: Roque Santa Cruz
61'
61'
🔁Lucas Andres Cohener Gonzalezout: Alexis Doldán
61'
🔁Kevin Ferreira Gonzalezout: R. Amarilla
Sebastian Vargas
65'
69'
🔁Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordónout: Santiago Salcedo
71'
⚽R. Amarillaassist: Santiago Salcedo
🔁Sebastian Vargasout: Derlis Nicolás Caballero Estévez
76'
82'
🔁I Fretesout: Teodoro Paredes
84'
Gastón Gerzel
Derlis Nicolás Caballero Estévez
89'
90'
Alexis Doldán

Match stats — Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

66%Possession34%
19Shots15
5On target4
5Corners4
1.38xG1.79

Goals against chances

Nacional Asuncion0 from 1.38 xGless than the chances were worth
Club Sp. San Lorenzo2 from 1.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nacional Asuncion 4-1-4-1
  • 30S. RojasG
  • 32F. PumpidoD
  • 22R. MelgarejoD
  • 3M. CoronelD
  • 29S. VargasD
  • 17J. SantacruzM
  • 33O. GaonaM
  • 8F. JaraM
  • 13L. MezaM
  • 10J. ColmánM
  • 9H. BenítezF
Substitutes
  • 7I. BailoneF
  • 20Rodolfo ArguelloD
  • 5G. BenítezD
  • 39D. CaballeroF
  • 4T. GutiérrezD
  • 1G. OrtizG
  • 27R. PrietoF
  • 25Roberto Carlos Ramírez AntúnezM
  • 24R. Santa CruzF
Coach: V. Bernay
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2
  • 31L. FrancoG
  • 2L. EstecheD
  • 19Luis Fernando Cáceres MacielD
  • 21H. GonzalezD
  • 13Isaias FretesD
  • 28P. GerzelM
  • 39Lucas Andres Cohener GonzalezM
  • 32F. AragónM
  • 22K. FerreiraM
  • 23M. FerreiraF
  • 9J. BarriosF
Substitutes
  • 8R. AmarillaF
  • 16Á. BenítezM
  • 33Gustavo Luis Centurion VillalbaG
  • 4A. DoldánD
  • 25K. FernándezM
  • 27Elias OrtizM
  • 5T. ParedesD
  • 15B. PiñataresM
  • 7S. SalcedoF
Coach: S. Orteman

Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Nacional Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno31 October 2026
  • L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W2-1Libertad Asuncion31 October 2026
  • L1-3Cerro Porteno25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Nacional Asuncion199552614+1232
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo1925121432-1811

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  • 28 August 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–3 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 22 March 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 24 January 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 25 October 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 21 August 2020Nacional Asuncion 2–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 8 February 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Nacional Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • H. Benítez66
  • I. Valdez61

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ferreira51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club Sp. San Lorenzo won 2–0 at Nacional Asuncion. The model had leaned towards a win for Nacional Asuncion at 74% and given a win for Club Sp. San Lorenzo 8%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 13 matches like this one. The goals: Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón 23' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, R. Amarilla 71' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.79.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nacional Asuncion a 14.3% chance to win the league: 16.2% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 9.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.