FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Dallas 1-0 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% FC Dallas, 26% draw, 30% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Dallas at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 42DanielG
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 3O. UrhoghideD
- 18S. MooreD
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 55KaickM
- 17RamiroM
- 77B. KamungoM
- 21J. ValienteM
- 10S. MorenoM
- 9P. MusaF
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 7D. JobM
- 12C. CappisM
- 8P. DelgadoM
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 32N. NorrisD
- 28Samuel SarverF
- 27Caleb SwannM
- 40J. SiroisG
- 26A. ThomasG
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 25J. RagenD
- 5N. ToloD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 37S. BrunellM
- 90S. GomezM
- 11A. RusnákM
- 17P. ArriolaM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 24S. FreiG
- 27J. FerreiraF
- 8C. ClarkM
- 28Y. GómezD
- 45P. KingstonM
- 13J. MorrisF
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 16A. RoldanD
- 31H. DotsonM
Form going into FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Charlotte10 October 2026
- W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
- D0-0Austin20 September 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to New England Revolution10 October 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
- D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Dallas | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 62 | 51 | +11 | 58 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders
- 26 April 2026Seattle Sounders 2–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2025FC Dallas 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 23 June 2024Seattle Sounders 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 14 April 2024FC Dallas 0–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
GoalsAssists
- P. Musa225
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Dallas beat Seattle Sounders 1–0. The model had made a win for FC Dallas its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Kaick da Silva Ferreira 63' for FC Dallas. On expected goals it finished 0.97–1.82.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Dallas a 80.7% chance to finish in the top four: 90.3% after a win, 78.5% after a draw, 69.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 90.3%, 9.6 points higher than before the match.
For Seattle Sounders the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.7% going in: 20.5% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.3%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.