30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result

Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Atletico Paranaense 3-3 Fluminense.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Atletico Paranaense, 29% draw, 32% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Paranaense at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Paranaense0%Draw5%Fluminense95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Leozinhoassist: S. Mendoza
35'
38'
⚽Hulk
45+5'
Ganso
⚽G. Benavidez
48'
Gastón Benavídez
49'
59'
🔁PH Gansoout: L. Acosta
59'
🔁Y. Soteldoout: K. Serna
64'
⚽A. Canobbio
🔁Leozinhoout: Dudu Kogitzki
71'
🔁Joao Cruzout: K. A. Calderon Vargas
71'
75'
Nonato
78'
⚽Ignacioassist: Hulk
Kevin Viveros
80'
🔁Luiz Gustavoout: B. Zapelli
83'
🔁F. Aguirreout: J. Rivaldo
83'
•Kevin Viveros
87'
89'
🔁A. Canobbioout: J. Savarino
90'
🔁Hulkout: Jemmes
⚽K. Viveros (pen)
90'

Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense

47%Possession53%
17Shots12
8On target6
8Corners3
1.92xG0.56

Goals against chances

Atletico Paranaense3 from 1.92 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fluminense3 from 0.56 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
  • 23SantosG
  • 25DantasD
  • 33F. AguirreD
  • 4Arthur DiasD
  • 29G. BenavidezM
  • 16JadsonM
  • 14Luiz GustavoM
  • 7S. MendozaM
  • 21LeozinhoF
  • 8Joao CruzF
  • 9K. ViverosF
Substitutes
  • 1MycaelG
  • 3LeoD
  • 22C. TeranD
  • 2Gilberto JuniorD
  • 5FelipinhoD
  • 10B. ZapelliM
  • 53Dudu KogitzkiM
  • 63Diogo RiquelmeM
  • 18K. A. Calderon VargasF
Coach: Joao Correia
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
  • 1FabioG
  • 23GugaD
  • 4IgnacioD
  • 29J. MillanD
  • 6ReneD
  • 16NonatoM
  • 8MartinelliM
  • 17A. CanobbioM
  • 10PH GansoM
  • 30Y. SoteldoM
  • 7HulkF
Substitutes
  • 27Marcelo PitalugaG
  • 3Thiago SilvaD
  • 44JemmesD
  • 46Julio FidelisD
  • 13Guilherme AranaD
  • 32L. AcostaM
  • 94OtavioM
  • 11J. SavarinoF
  • 28Riquelme FelipeF
Coach: Marcao

Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense

Atletico Paranaense

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
  • D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Santos9 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
  • W2-0Internacional25 July 2026

Fluminense

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Remo22 August 2026
  • W3-2Palmeiras15 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Botafogo9 August 2026
  • D0-0Bahia30 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Gremio26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Paranaense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Paranaense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had two goals or fewer.
  • Fluminense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Atletico Paranaense34159105143+854
4Fluminense3416995542+1357

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense

  • 15 March 2026Fluminense 3–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 1 December 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
  • 22 October 2024Fluminense 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 27 August 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–2 FluminenseSerie A
  • 22 April 2023Fluminense 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 3 September 2022Atletico Paranaense 1–0 FluminenseSerie A

The full Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense

Atletico Paranaense

GoalsAssists

  • K. Viveros213

Fluminense

GoalsAssists

  • John Kennedy91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Paranaense at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Leozinho 35' for Atletico Paranaense, Hulk 38' for Fluminense, G. Benavidez 48' for Atletico Paranaense, A. Canobbio 64' for Fluminense, Ignacio 78' for Fluminense, K. Viveros (penalty) 90' for Atletico Paranaense. On expected goals it finished 1.92–0.56.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.