Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Paranaense 3-3 Fluminense.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Atletico Paranaense, 29% draw, 32% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
Fluminense
- W2-1Remo22 August 2026
- W3-2Palmeiras15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
- 15 March 2026Fluminense 3–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 1 December 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 22 October 2024Fluminense 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 27 August 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–2 FluminenseSerie A
- 22 April 2023Fluminense 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 3 September 2022Atletico Paranaense 1–0 FluminenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Fluminense
- John Kennedy9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.