30 August 2026, 02:30 UTC

Portland Timbers vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result

Providence Park, Portland
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Portland Timbers, 23% draw, 23% Austin — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portland Timbers at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portland Timbers6%Draw91%Austin3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽F. Torresassist: J. Rosales
35'
Guilherme Biro
47'
Mikkel Desler
🔁G. Guerraout: Antony
63'
63'
🔁J. Alastueyout: Z. Kolmanic
63'
🔁J. Gallagherout: P. Placheta
71'
🔁M. Deslerout: B. Hines-Ike
🔁J. Foryout: I. Smith
75'
🔁C. Bassettout: J. Ortiz
75'
🔁E. Millerout: O. Fernandez
83'
83'
🔁J. Bellout: O. Svatok
83'
🔁F. Torresout: I. Sanchez
•Antony Alves
86'
José Caicedo
88'
88'
Oleksandr Svatok
⚽Antony (pen)
89'
90+7'
Joseph Rosales
90'
⚽O. Svatok

Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Austin

50%Possession50%
13Shots10
5On target3
6Corners3
2.03xG1.18

Goals against chances

Portland Timbers1 from 2.03 xGless than the chances were worth
Austin2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portland Timbers 4-3-3
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 27J. ForyD
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 30J. CaicedoM
  • 10D. Da CostaM
  • 7A. LassiterF
  • 88G. GuerraF
  • 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
  • 26H. SulteG
  • 6A. BonetigD
  • 18Z. McGrawD
  • 16S. JuraD
  • 23I. SmithD
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 73E. IzoitaM
  • 22O. FernandezF
  • 11AntonyF
Coach: Jack Cassidy
Austin
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 3M. DeslerD
  • 15J. BellD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 38E. TorresM
  • 14B. SabovicM
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 11F. TorresF
  • 24J. AlastueyF
  • 9B. VazquezF
Substitutes
  • 12D. LasG
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 23Z. KolmanicD
  • 35M. DjordjevicD
  • 6I. SanchezM
  • 32M. BurtonM
  • 21C. RamirezF
  • 77P. PlachetaM

Form going into Portland Timbers vs Austin

Portland Timbers

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026
  • W3-1San Diego20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Chicago Fire16 August 2026
  • W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
  • W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026

Austin

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Philadelphia Union23 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Seattle Sounders20 August 2026
  • L1-2FC Dallas17 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids2 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Houston Dynamo26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Portland Timbers.
  • Austin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Portland Timbers34137146261+146
14Austin34810164265-2334

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs Austin

  • 5 April 2025Austin 0–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 2 March 2025Portland Timbers 1–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 3 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 30 May 2024Austin 0–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 18 September 2023Austin 1–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 7 May 2023Portland Timbers 2–2 AustinMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Austin won 2–1 at Portland Timbers. The model had leaned towards a win for Portland Timbers at 54% and given a win for Austin 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: F. Torres 25' for Austin, Antony (penalty) 89' for Portland Timbers, O. Svatok 90' for Austin. On expected goals it finished 2.03–1.18.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.