St. Louis City vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 3-3 FC Dallas.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% St. Louis City, 29% draw, 27% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Louis City vs FC Dallas
St. Louis City
- W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
FC Dallas
- L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 41 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs FC Dallas
- 12 April 2026FC Dallas 1–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 7 September 2025St. Louis City 1–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 20 July 2025FC Dallas 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 28 July 2024St. Louis City 2–1 FC DallasLeagues Cup
- 16 June 2024FC Dallas 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 7 April 2024St. Louis City 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and FC Dallas
St. Louis City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.