30 August 2026, 23:00 UTC

St. Louis City vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result

CITYPARK, St. Louis
Full time3 – 3

Final score: St. Louis City 3-3 FC Dallas.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% St. Louis City, 29% draw, 27% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Louis City at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Louis City97%Draw3%FC Dallas0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Becher
3'
14'
Ramiro
18'
⚽S. Moore
⚽D. Edelman
43'
🔁A. Matanout: C. Holse
59'
59'
🔁H. Johanssonout: C. Cappis
59'
🔁S. Morenoout: R. Binyamin
⚽C. Holseassist: C. Wallem
64'
68'
🔁Ramiroout: L. Farrington
69'
🔁B. Kamungoout: N. Norris
🔁S. Jeongout: Z. Zengue
72'
81'
⚽S. Ibeaghaassist: J. Valiente
🔁J. Orozcoout: L. MacNaughton
88'
89'
Petar Musa
89'
🔁Kaickout: S. Sarver
Lukas MacNaughton
90+7'
90'
⚽L. Farringtonassist: P. Musa

Match stats — St. Louis City vs FC Dallas

53%Possession47%
10Shots12
5On target7
6Corners3
1.85xG0.98

Goals against chances

St. Louis City3 from 1.85 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Dallas3 from 0.98 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St. Louis City 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. BurkiG
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 21D. PolvaraD
  • 6C. WallemM
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 8C. DurkinM
  • 14T. TotlandM
  • 77S. JeongF
  • 23A. MatanF
  • 11S. BecherF
Substitutes
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 20Rafael SantosD
  • 3T. Reid-BrownD
  • 4M. MbackeD
  • 28M. PerezM
  • 19C. HolseF
  • 59M. JoynerM
  • 91Z. ZengueM
Coach: Yoann Damet
FC Dallas 3-4-2-1
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 55KaickM
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 21J. ValienteF
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 9P. MusaF
Substitutes
  • 30M. CollodiG
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 24J. TorquatoD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 33C. HolstadM
  • 28S. SarverF
  • 23L. FarringtonF
Coach: Eric Quill

Form going into St. Louis City vs FC Dallas

St. Louis City

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City20 August 2026
  • W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026
  • D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
  • W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026

FC Dallas

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to Vancouver Whitecaps23 August 2026
  • W4-3away to Real Salt Lake20 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Austin17 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to San Diego26 July 2026

What these results say

  • St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Dallas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3St. Louis City34159105948+1154
2FC Dallas34161086251+1158

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs FC Dallas

  • 12 April 2026FC Dallas 1–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 7 September 2025St. Louis City 1–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 20 July 2025FC Dallas 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 28 July 2024St. Louis City 2–1 FC DallasLeagues Cup
  • 16 June 2024FC Dallas 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 7 April 2024St. Louis City 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: St. Louis City and FC Dallas

St. Louis City

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Navarro196

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St. Louis City and FC Dallas drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Becher 3' for St. Louis City, S. Moore 18' for FC Dallas, D. Edelman 43' for St. Louis City, C. Holse 64' for St. Louis City, S. Ibeagha 81' for FC Dallas, L. Farrington 90' for FC Dallas. On expected goals it finished 1.85–0.98.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.