30 August 2026, 22:30 UTC

Bahia vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result

Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Bahia 3-2 Internacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Bahia, 28% draw, 26% Internacional — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bahia at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bahia97%Draw3%Internacional0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Alan Patrickassist: Thiago Maia
⚽Erick Pulgaassist: Nicolas Acevedo
23'
Cristian Olivera
39'
39'
Alexandro Bernabei
⚽Erick Pulgaassist: A. Veliz
42'
⚽Erick
45'
52'
⚽Vitinhoassist: Alan Patrick
54'
Guillermo Maripán
🔁C. Oliveraout: Ademir
56'
🔁Erickout: Michel Araujo
56'
64'
🔁Thiago Maiaout: Calebe
64'
🔁A. Bernabeiout: A. Sanabria
Román Gómez
66'
Michel Araújo
72'
🔁R. Gomezout: Marcos Victor
76'
76'
🔁Matheus Bahiaout: Juninho
76'
🔁Alan Patrickout: J. Carbonero
🔁Rodrigoout: Caio Alexandre
84'
🔁Erick Pulgaout: Ruan Pablo
84'
87'
🔁Vitinhoout: N. Eliasson
David Duarte
90+1'

Match stats — Bahia vs Internacional

57%Possession43%
13Shots12
6On target3
3Corners3
2.39xG1.69

Goals against chances

Bahia3 from 2.39 xGmore than the chances were worth
Internacional2 from 1.69 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bahia 4-3-3
  • 1Ronaldo StradaG
  • 31R. GomezD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 21S. RamosD
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 14ErickM
  • 5Nicolas AcevedoM
  • 11RodrigoM
  • 99C. OliveraF
  • 9A. VelizF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 17G. HerreraG
  • 4KanuD
  • 3M. MorenoD
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 66Ze GuilhermeD
  • 8Caio AlexandreM
  • 12Willian JoseF
  • 7AdemirF
  • 15Michel AraujoM
Coach: Ceni Rogerio
Internacional 5-3-2
  • 23Matheus CunhaG
  • 35B. AguirreD
  • 4F. TorresD
  • 3G. MaripanD
  • 6Matheus BahiaD
  • 26A. BernabeiD
  • 8Bruno HenriqueM
  • 16RonaldoM
  • 29Thiago MaiaM
  • 28VitinhoF
  • 10Alan PatrickF
Substitutes
  • 12AnthoniG
  • 18JuninhoD
  • 53L. F. de Morais FranciscoD
  • 46Pedro KauaD
  • 17N. EliassonM
  • 5R. VillagraM
  • 30CalebeM
  • 52G. ViniciusM
  • 19A. SanabriaF
Coach: Paulo Pezzolano

Form going into Bahia vs Internacional

Bahia

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
  • D0-0Vasco da Gama9 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
  • D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026

Internacional

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
  • D1-1Remo17 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Palmeiras9 August 2026
  • D1-1Flamengo29 July 2026
  • L0-2away to Atletico Paranaense25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Bahia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Bahia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Bahia had two goals or fewer.
  • Internacional did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Internacional had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Bahia34141195045+553
16Internacional34911143842-438

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bahia vs Internacional

  • 15 March 2026Internacional 0–1 BahiaSerie A
  • 8 November 2025Internacional 2–2 BahiaSerie A
  • 22 October 2025Bahia 1–0 InternacionalSerie A
  • 28 May 2025Internacional 2–1 BahiaCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 3 April 2025Bahia 1–1 InternacionalCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 27 July 2024Bahia 1–1 InternacionalSerie A

The full Bahia vs Internacional record →

Leading scorers: Bahia and Internacional

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba112

Internacional

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carbonero74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bahia beat Internacional 3–2. The model had made a win for Bahia its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alan Patrick 16' for Internacional, Erick Pulga 23' for Bahia, Erick Pulga 42' for Bahia, Erick 45' for Bahia, Vitinho 52' for Internacional. On expected goals it finished 2.39–1.69.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.