17 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result

Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Palmeiras.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Atletico Paranaense, 28% draw, 37% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Palmeiras at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Paranaense0%Draw1%Palmeiras99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Maurício Magalhães Pradoassist: José Manuel López
Gilberto
9'
10'
⚽Joaquín Piquerez
22'
Andreas Pereira
35'
Joaquín Piquerez
43'
Andreas Pereira
🔁Antonio Feliphe Costa Silvaout: jorge rivaldo
45'
45'
🔁Maurício Magalhães Pradoout: Marlon Freitas
🔁João Victor Machado Cruzout: Claudinho
45'
🔁Claudinhoout: Bruno Zapelli
52'
Leonardo Caetano Silva
57'
65'
🔁José Manuel Lópezout: Jhon Arias
🔁Gilbertoout: chiqueti
67'
72'
🔁Lucas Evangelistaout: Emiliano Martínez
72'
🔁Ramon Sosaout: Arthur Gabriel
🔁Leonardo Caetano Silvaout: Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
87'
90'
🔁Bruno Fuchsout: Luis Benedetti

Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras

64%Possession36%
24Shots6
6On target3
16Corners1
1.21xG0.38

Goals against chances

Atletico Paranaense0 from 1.21 xGless than the chances were worth
Palmeiras2 from 0.38 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
  • 1MycaelG
  • 4Arthur DiasD
  • 33J. AguirreD
  • 14Luiz GustavoD
  • 12GilbertoM
  • 16JádsonM
  • 5FelipinhoM
  • 7S. MendozaM
  • 21LeozinhoM
  • 8João CruzM
  • 9K. ViverosF
Substitutes
  • 47ChiquetiM
  • 26ClaudinhoD
  • 63Diogo RiquelmeM
  • 53DuduM
  • 3LéoD
  • 27J. PortillaM
  • 70RenanF
  • 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
  • 23SantosG
Coach: Odair Hellmann
Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
  • 1Carlos MiguelG
  • 3Bruno FuchsD
  • 26MuriloD
  • 2A. BarbozaD
  • 12KhellvenM
  • 30Lucas EvangelistaM
  • 8Andreas PereiraM
  • 22J. PiquerezM
  • 42J. LópezM
  • 18MaurícioM
  • 19R. SosaF
Substitutes
  • 43BenedettiD
  • 45Erick MachadoM
  • 7Felipe AndersonM
  • 48LarsonM
  • 50Luis FelipeM
  • 14Marcelo LombaG
  • 17Marlon FreitasM
  • 32E. MartínezM
  • 10PaulinhoF
Coach: Abel Ferreira

Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras

Atletico Paranaense

Serie A

  • W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026

Palmeiras

Serie A

  • W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Atletico Paranaense34159105143+854
2Palmeiras34211036223+3973

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras

  • 19 April 2026Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 1 September 2024Atletico Paranaense 0–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 12 May 2024Palmeiras 0–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 5 November 2023Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 2 July 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 26 October 2022Atletico Paranaense 1–3 PalmeirasSerie A

The full Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras

Atletico Paranaense

GoalsAssists

  • K. Viveros213

Palmeiras

GoalsAssists

  • J. López107
  • Maurício101

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Palmeiras won 2–0 at Atletico Paranaense. The model had made a win for Palmeiras its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Maurício Magalhães Prado 6' for Palmeiras, Joaquín Piquerez 10' for Palmeiras. Sent off: Andreas Pereira (Palmeiras) 43'. On expected goals it finished 1.21–0.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Paranaense a 75.3% chance to finish in the top four: 86.5% after a win, 74.9% after a draw, 66.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.5%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

For Palmeiras the question was the chance to win the league, 43.0% going in: 53.9% after a win, 39.4% after a draw, 32.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.9%, 10.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Atletico Paranaense win35%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Palmeiras win37%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.