New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New England Revolution 1-0 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% New England Revolution, 25% draw, 33% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New England Revolution at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30M. TurnerG
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 22E. KohlerD
- 66J. WynderD
- 23W. SandsD
- 10Carles GilM
- 21B. RainesM
- 8M. PolsterM
- 25P. MillerF
- 99D. TurgemanF
- 41L. LangoniF
- 15C. BakerD
- 4T. BeasonD
- 77D. FagundezM
- 16D. GazdagM
- 73JD GunnG
- 27W. HarrisF
- 65J. SiqueiraM
- 7G. YowF
- 14J. YueillM
- 1C. BradyG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 15A. GutmanD
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 42T. D'AvillaM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 11P. ZinckernagelF
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 19J. BambaF
- 35S. OregelM
- 22M. PinedaD
- 29D. PorębaM
- 23A. MekvabishviliM
- 18J. GómezF
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 24J. DeanD
- 44J. CohenG
- 32N. AllenD
Form going into New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to FC Cincinnati14 October 2026
- L0-3Seattle Sounders10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Philadelphia Union15 October 2026
- W2-1New York City FC10 October 2026
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
What these results say
- New England Revolution conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New England Revolution | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 47 | +8 | 58 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
- 13 September 2026Chicago Fire 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025New England Revolution 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 7 September 2025Chicago Fire 3–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 20 May 2025New England Revolution 1–3 Chicago FireUS Open Cup
- 5 May 2024Chicago Fire 0–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024New England Revolution 1–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
New England Revolution beat Chicago Fire 1–0. The model had made a win for New England Revolution its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Matt Polster 26' for New England Revolution. On expected goals it finished 0.27–1.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave New England Revolution a 58.8% chance to finish in the top four: 79.1% after a win, 54.0% after a draw, 37.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.1%, 20.3 points higher than before the match.
For Chicago Fire the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 65.4% going in: 87.3% after a win, 68.0% after a draw, 48.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.1%, 17.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on New England Revolution v Chicago Fire has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 25% / 33%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- New England Revolution win42%▲ +1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Chicago Fire win33%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.