Independiente Rivadavia vs Tigre Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Rivadavia 2-2 Tigre.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Independiente Rivadavia, 29% draw, 27% Tigre — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Independiente Rivadavia at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Rivadavia vs Tigre
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Nicolás BolcatoG
- 2L. CostaD
- 42S. StuderD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 25J. FlorentínM
- 14L. GómezM
- 80M. RealiM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 3J. ElordiM
- 43F. SartoriF
- 10M. FernándezF
- 32K. VázquezM
- 11G. RíosM
- 7V. RamisF
- 13A. OsellaD
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 21Emmanuel GómezG
- 28A. VigoD
- 23L. DíazF
- 27D. CregoM
- 12F. ZenobioG
- 8M. GarayD
- 2J. LasoD
- 20A. BarrionuevoD
- 24F. ÁlvarezD
- 50I. PeluffoM
- 27S. GonzálezM
- 5B. LeyesM
- 10J. SaraleguiM
- 30J. DóminaF
- 29I. RussoF
- 26L. MoralesG
- 28P. MartínezM
- 18M. FernándezF
- 16N. DubersarskyM
- 4V. MorenoD
- 33M. MéndezF
- 19A. OviedoF
- 23G. RequenaD
- 11T. SerragoM
Form going into Independiente Rivadavia vs Tigre
Independiente Rivadavia
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-5away to Rosario Central11 October 2026
Tigre
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L1-2Banfield10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 23 |
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia vs Tigre
- 12 July 2026Independiente Rivadavia 1–0 TigreCopa Argentina
- 2 April 2026Tigre 0–2 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 September 2025Tigre 1–3 Independiente RivadaviaCopa Argentina
- 22 August 2025Tigre 1–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 February 2025Independiente Rivadavia 1–4 TigreLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 December 2024Tigre 0–2 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente Rivadavia and Tigre
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- J. Florentín91
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Tigre
GoalsAssists
- I. Russo83
- M. Méndez73
- D. Romero72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente Rivadavia and Tigre drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente Rivadavia at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Matías Fernández 20' for Independiente Rivadavia, Alan Barrionuevo 26' for Tigre, Jose Ignacio Florentin 52' for Independiente Rivadavia, Manuel Fernández 90+2' for Tigre. On expected goals it finished 1.10–1.13.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Independiente Rivadavia these chances to finish in the top four: 21.9% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 2.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 5.6%.
For Tigre the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.4% going in: 7.4% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 35.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.1%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Independiente Rivadavia v Tigre has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 42% / 31% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Independiente Rivadavia's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Independiente Rivadavia win44%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Tigre win27%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.