17 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Platense vs Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Buenos Aires
Referee: Leandro Rey Hilfer, Argentina
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Platense 0-1 Lanus.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Platense, 32% draw, 40% Lanus — fair odds of 3.57, 3.13 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lanus at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Platense0%Draw3%Lanus97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Víctor Cuesta
10'
29'
⚽Allan Steven Wlk Duréassist: Sasha Julian Marcich
43'
Matías Sepúlveda
Tomás Silva
56'
58'
Diego Agustín Medina
🔁Bruno Christian Sepulvedaout: Gonzalo Lencina
58'
68'
🔁Lucas Agustín Besozziout: Gonzalo Thomás Lobos
68'
🔁Matías Sepúlvedaout: Ramiro Carrera
🔁Franco Zapiola Yamartinoout: Juan Carlos Gauto
68'
74'
🔁Allan Steven Wlk Duréout: Yoshan Valois
🔁Kevin Retamarout: Guido Mainero
79'
🔁Martin Barriosout: Maximiliano Amarfil
79'
🔁Bautista Merliniout: Nico López
79'
87'
🔁Eduardo Salvioout: Nicolás Morgantini
87'
🔁Diego Agustín Medinaout: Felipe Peña Biafore

Match stats — Platense vs Lanus

56%Possession44%
16Shots9
3On target3
12Corners5
1.72xG1.14

Goals against chances

Platense0 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Lanus1 from 1.14 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Platense 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. CozzaniG
  • 25J. SaboridoD
  • 34M. MendiaD
  • 31V. CuestaD
  • 3T. SilvaD
  • 5I. GómezM
  • 24M. BarriosM
  • 43N. RetamarM
  • 18B. MerliniM
  • 10F. ZapiolaM
  • 79B. SepúlvedaF
Substitutes
  • 17Felipe BussioM
  • 15M. AmarfilM
  • 33J. GautoF
  • 16G. TogniF
  • 38Celías Adán IngenthronD
  • 22N. SumavilG
  • 4A. LagosD
  • 99G. LencinaF
  • 21A. LottiF
Coach: M. Palermo
Lanus 4-2-3-1
  • 26N. LosadaG
  • 33T. GuidaraD
  • 24C. IzquierdozD
  • 13J. CanaleD
  • 6S. MarcichD
  • 17A. MedinaM
  • 30A. CardozoM
  • 16M. SepúlvedaM
  • 11E. SalvioM
  • 77L. BesozziM
  • 20A. WlkF
Substitutes
  • 38B. AcostaF
  • 35R. De JesúsD
  • 15R. LoaizaM
  • 42G. LobosF
  • 10M. MorenoM
  • 3N. MorgantiniD
  • 1F. PetroliG
  • 5F. PeñaM
  • 4G. PérezD
Coach: M. Pellegrino

Form going into Platense vs Lanus

Platense

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1Argentinos Juniors11 October 2026

Lanus

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-0Velez Sarsfield12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Platense165561820-220
5Lanus167541912+726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Platense vs Lanus

  • 1 April 2026Lanus 0–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 September 2025Lanus 2–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 March 2025Platense 0–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 11 November 2024Lanus 0–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 11 February 2024Lanus 3–0 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 14 September 2023Platense 2–1 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Platense vs Lanus record →

The result against the call

Lanus won 1–0 at Platense. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lanus at 40%. The goal: Allan Steven Wlk Duré 29' for Lanus. On expected goals it finished 1.72–1.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Platense a 53.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.8% after a win, 55.8% after a draw, 67.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.3%, 13.7 points higher than before the match.

For Lanus the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 50.5% going in: 70.0% after a win, 43.8% after a draw, 28.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.0%, 19.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Platense v Lanus has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 29% / 33% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 28% / 32% / 40%: the biggest move is Lanus's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Platense win28%▼ −1
  2. Draw32%▼ −1
  3. Lanus win40%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.