8 August 2026, 17:45 UTC

Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro, Tucuman
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Atletico Tucuman 1-2 Sarmiento Junin.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Atletico Tucuman, 25% draw, 20% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atletico Tucuman at 55% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Tucuman0%Draw5%Sarmiento Junin95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
M. Martinez
61'
🔁J. Contreraout: U. Gimenez
61'
🔁J. Herreraout: Diego Churin
61'
🔁J. Insaurraldeout: G. Arturia
69'
⚽J. Marabel (pen)
71'
⚽J. Mavilla
🔁N. Francoout: M. Brondo
72'
80'
🔁J. Mavillaout: G. Gonzalez
🔁N. Lamendolaout: A. Canelo
81'
🔁R. Tesuriout: L. Di Placido
81'
🔁M. Villaout: R. Granillo
81'
⚽L. Vallejoassist: C. D. Ferreira Namandu
81'
89'
🔁J. Marabelout: G. Diaz
90+4'
S. Salle
🔁I. Galvanout: R. Paunero
90'

Match stats — Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin

55%Possession45%
14Shots11
7On target5
13Corners4
0.72xG1.41

Goals against chances

Atletico Tucuman1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sarmiento Junin2 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Tucuman 4-1-4-1
  • 1L. IngolottiG
  • 3M. VillaD
  • 26C. D. Ferreira NamanduD
  • 36L. VallejoD
  • 21I. GalvanD
  • 5J. FernandezM
  • 11R. TesuriM
  • 31L. GodoyM
  • 10N. FrancoM
  • 23N. LamendolaM
  • 18R. RuizF
Substitutes
  • 25T. DursoG
  • 17J. RodriguezD
  • 14A. CaneloF
  • 24L. Di PlacidoD
  • 6G. FerrariD
  • 27R. GranilloF
  • 8E. HamM
  • 28G. CompagnucciD
  • 45K. OrtizM
Coach: Julio Falcioni
Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 8S. SalleD
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 3L. SuarezD
  • 19J. ContreraM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 16M. MartinezM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 27J. MarabelF
  • 24J. HerreraF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 7P. MagninF
  • 20U. GimenezD
  • 23E. GimenezM
  • 10J. RenteriaM
  • 9Diego ChurinF
  • 11G. GonzalezF
  • 5M. GarciaM
  • 6G. ArturiaD
Coach: Facundo Sava

Form going into Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin

Atletico Tucuman

  • D0-0away to Huracan4 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago31 July 2026
  • D0-0Independiente Rivadavia26 July 2026

Sarmiento Junin

  • W2-1Independiente Rivadavia3 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Banfield28 July 2026
  • L2-3Argentinos Juniors23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin

  • 8 February 2026Sarmiento Junin 2–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 August 2025Sarmiento Junin 2–2 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 February 2025Atletico Tucuman 5–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 4 November 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 June 2023Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 July 2022Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Atletico Tucuman and Sarmiento Junin

Atletico Tucuman

  • L. Díaz7 goals1 assists

Sarmiento Junin

  • J. Marabel12 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.