Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.
Before kick-off the model made it 88% Independiente Rivadavia, 8% draw, 4% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — fair odds of 1.14, 12.50 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 88% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Nicolás BolcatoG
- 13Alejo OsellaD
- 2Leonard CostaD
- 42Sheyko StuderD
- 3Juan Manuel ElordiD
- 11Gonzalo RíosM
- 5Tomás BottariM
- 10Matías FernándezM
- 25José FlorentínM
- 9Alex ArceF
- 43Fabrizio SartoriF
- 19Rodrigo AtencioF
- 17Maximiliano SalasF
- 36Ezequiel BonifacioD
- 8Leonel BuccaM
- 32Kevin VázquezM
- 21Emmanuel GómezG
- 40Iván VillalbaD
- 20Alessandro RiepM
- 23Luis DíazF
- 1Lucas BrueraG
- 2Gonzalo MaffiniD
- 30Sergio OjedaD
- 29Agustin QuirogaD
- 13Francisco RomeroM
- 14Gonzalo GonzalezM
- 19Nicolás TalponeM
- 10Tomas GonzalezM
- 17Gabriel AlanísM
- 16Yeison MorenoF
- 27Juan GarroF
- 32Mateo BajamichF
- 77Ibrahim HesarM
- 18Joaquín RiveroF
- 45Raúl LozanoD
- 8Siro RosaneM
- 43Agustín LastraG
- 31Matias ValentiD
- 23Fernando RodríguezD
- 28Facundo CobosD
Form going into Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Independiente Rivadavia
- L1-2away to Sarmiento Junin3 August 2026
- W2-1Huracan30 July 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman26 July 2026
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- D0-0Banfield1 August 2026
- L0-3away to Argentinos Juniors29 July 2026
- W1-0Tigre25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- 8 August 2026Independiente Rivadavia 2–1 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 February 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 September 2022Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 4–1 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 22 February 2020Independiente Rivadavia 0–0 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoPrimera Nacional
- 1 September 2019Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3–1 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Independiente Rivadavia and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Independiente Rivadavia
- A. Arce9 goals1 assists
- F. Sartori8 goals
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.